EUR/USD

In the coming week, the Euro will have to migrate three important events: Brexit, the EU summit decision on the veto of Poland and Hungary from the Recovery Fund since the last claim payment had inadequate contributions, and the ECB meeting on Thursday that will announce the decision to increase the QE PEPP from 1.35 trillion to 2.0 trillion euros. There will also be a rate cut and extension of the TLTRO program. Under the expected development scenario, which we take as the main one, the Euro does not have a chance to grow. On Brexit, options for a partial agreement are being considered. As for Poland and Hungary, they may give up their case. They say Poland has already backed down. Lastly, at the ECB meeting, Christine Lagarde may promise not to lower the rate even in the distant future. Therefore, we still have to wait for the development of these significant events.

On the daily scale chart, the price is fixed above the level of 1.2117. The target of 1.2230 is open before the price. The Marlin oscillator is not in a hurry to turn down as it still has the potential to grow. Only fixing the price below 1.2117 will shift the balance of forces to a deeper correction with the first goal of 1.2036. The next target is the Kruzenshtern line in the area of 1.1950.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin Oscillator shows a more noticeable decrease in activity. Before it moves to the negative area, the Euro should just pass the level of 1.2117. This action will allow the price to attack the level of 1.2045 (the Kruzenshtern line), which will prepare the conditions for further decline. We are waiting for further developments.