Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD unlikely to start long-term rally
time 06.12.2022 08:51 AM
time Relevance up to, 09.12.2022 08:50 AM

This image is no longer relevant

The US dollar managed to settle at the current highs thanks to upbeat US macro stats. The euro. on the contrary, dived down. Nevertheless, analysts believe that the greenback will hardly will be able to start a long-term rally even though it has risen significantly in the short term.

On December 5, the greenback grew markedly against the euro amid positive reports on the US PMI Indices. In November, the ISM Services Index increased to 56.5% from October 54.4%. The reading surpassed forecasts as economists had anticipated a decline to 53.3%.

Unexpectedly strong macroeconomic reports helped the greenback regain momentum. On December 6, the uptrend continued but it was not as strong as the day before. The dynamic of the US currency is relatively calm as the economic calendar is empty. At the same time, the EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.0487, trying to consolidate at the recent highs.

This image is no longer relevant

In October, factory and durable goods orders also exceeded forecasts. Market participants were surprised by a sharp increase in the ISM Services Index. According to economists, it signals a rise in inflationary pressure in the service sector although some signs of disinflation have already been seen in the commodity sector.

Analysts at the St. Louis Fed point out that current inflation expectations in the United States somewhat reflect the effectiveness of the Fed's hawkish stance. They are mainly fueled by geopolitical woes and strong US macro stats. They also note that there may be a lull on Forex. Only on December 6, the US trade balance report is due. According to preliminary estimates, the trade deficit is expected to grow to $80 billion from the previous $73.3 billion.

Next week, several central banks will hold their monetary policy meetings. Investors are curious to find out the size of the rate increase. The Fed is expected to hike the interest rate by 50 basis points, up to 4.25%-4.5% at the December meeting. There is also a chance that the Fed could take a pause in monetary tightening. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted that "slowing down at this point is a good way to balance the risks." Yet, he added that the watchdog would keep raising rates as "restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time."

Against this background, a slight decline in the US currency is possible. Last month, the greenback noticeably weakened. However, it will hardly start a downtrend in the near term. A downward reversal could take place after a period of high volatility, analysts at MFK Bank pinpointed. They reckon that the US dollar could remain volatile in the next three to four months. By the end of 2023, it may drop significantly. At the same time, they see no reason for a prolonged decline of the greenback although it is unable to start a steady correction due to current economic conditions.

The US currency may lose ground if the Fed takes a less hawkish stance. However, if the Fed remains strongly committed to aggressive tightening, it will boost a long-term rally of the US currency. Hence, It will recover next year.

Larisa Kolesnikova,
Chuyên gia phân tích của InstaForex
© 2007-2023

InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.

  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
  • Tiền gửi lần truy cập
    Ký quỹ tài khoản của bạn với $3000 và nhận được $1000 nhiều hơn!
    Trong Tháng 02 chúng tôi xổ $1000 trong chiến dịch Chancy Deposit!
    Có được một cơ hội giành chiến thắng bằng việc ký quỹ $3000 vào một tài khoản giao dịch. Đáp ứng được điều kiện này, bạn trở thành một người tham gia chiến dịch.
  • Giao dịch khôn ngoan, thành công
    Nạp tiền vào tài khoản của bạn với ít nhất $ 500, đăng ký cuộc thi và có cơ hội giành được các thiết bị di động.
  • 100% tiền thưởng
    Cơ hội duy nhất của bạn để nhận 100% tiền thưởng khi gửi tiền
  • 55% Tiền thưởng
    Đăng ký tiền thưởng 55% cho mỗi lần gửi tiền của bạn
  • 30% tiền thưởng
    Nhận 30% tiền thưởng mỗi khi bạn nạp tiền vào tài khoản của mình

Recommended Stories

The euro is at a loss: is it in danger of falling like the USD?

The euro is steady in an uptrend, but from time to time it stumbles and fails. At the moment, the euro's efforts are rewarded by its leading position against

Larisa Kolesnikova 08:18 2023-01-31 UTC+2

USD/JPY: US dollar latches on Fed rate increase expectations

The US dollar tries to take advantage of the upcoming interest rate hike in the US. On Monday, USD/JPY rose by 0.7% and hit the high of 130.5. The current

Аlena Ivannitskaya 08:07 2023-01-31 UTC+2

EUR/USD: the dollar is cautious as it seeks ways to rise, but the euro is stubborn

The U.S. currency occasionally tries to rise and secure the upward momentum, but usually those efforts are blocked by the euro's persistence. For several weeks, the euro, taking advantage

Larisa Kolesnikova 10:55 2023-01-30 UTC+2

US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 0.08%

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.08%, the S&P 500 rose 0.25%, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.95%. The leading performer among

Thomas Frank 04:05 2023-01-30 UTC+2

European markets closes the week with growth

Major Western European indexes were trading higher on Friday after falling the day before. European markets advanced after a spectacular rise in US and Asian stock markets. Mining stocks rallied

Irina Maksimova 00:45 2023-01-29 UTC+2

The dollar is swirling in a cycle of new numbers. The Fed has the last word.

Market sentiment is mixed, with traders trying to catch the most accurate signal coming from U.S. data. While people are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive

Anna Zotova 00:45 2023-01-29 UTC+2

Second straight day of gains for Asian markets as uptrend continues

Major Asian indexes continued to rise on Friday, though the upside movement was not as strong as it was yesterday. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 inched up by only 0.05%

15:53 2023-01-27 UTC+2

Oil prices edge up, and Russia transfers record volumes on high seas

Oil is steadily rising in trading on Thursday amid expectations of increased demand. The easing of some quarantine restrictions in China promises the market a recovery in consumption this year

Natalia Andreeva 22:52 2023-01-26 UTC+2

Asian stocks move in different directions again

Asian equities were moving in different directions on Thursday. The Hong Kong stock exchange trading resumed, and the Hang Seng Index immediately showed an increase of 2.02%. The Korean KOSPI

22:52 2023-01-26 UTC+2

Winter for the dollar, summer for the euro: USD doesn't know how to get out of the pit

The dollar is still stuck in the financial pit. The greenback fell to an 8-month low on Thursday, once again yielding to the euro. Market participants expect

Larisa Kolesnikova 08:14 2023-01-26 UTC+2
Không thể nói chuyện ngay bây giờ?
Đặt câu hỏi của bạn trong phần trò chuyện.