21.03.2023 11:47 PM
Isn't the problem with the dollar the Fed?

Over the past few days, the euro and the pound have been rising rapidly against the dollar. If at some point we could conclude that the whole point lies in solving the problem with Credit Suisse, now, as we observe the daily increase of both instruments, it is no longer possible to think so. Credit Suisse's problems have certainly been solved, but the euro and the pound are still rising. Also, it is not possible to link the current growth with the results of the European Central Bank meeting, which can be interpreted as you like. The ECB raised the rate by another 50 basis points, which appears like a hawkish step, but at the same time, the central bank made it clear that in the future the rate may grow much more slowly. Now the ECB will carefully analyze all economic information before deciding on a rate hike. And the market has been waiting for a 50-point hike in March for a long time. It is unlikely that it is still wagering on this event.

In the pound's case, the situation is even more complicated. The Federal Reserve meeting will be held on Wednesday, while the Bank of England meeting is set for Thursday. The rate may rise by 25 points at both meetings, which is a basic scenario that should have been taken into account in prices for a long time. Either the market is waiting for any surprises from the banks, or that's not the case at all. I believe in the second option.

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But recently we found out that the Fed is introducing new stimulus programs to stabilize the banking crisis. We are talking about the purchase of government bonds worth at least $250 billion in order to finance the government, which will use this money to stabilize the banking sector, as well as make payments to affected customers of the three bankrupt banks. It seems to me that the dollar's decline may be related to this event, since we are talking about an increase in the money supply in the US against the background... of its own decline. Let me remind you that the Fed has been selling about $100 billion a month of government bonds from its own balance sheet for several months. It sells them and buys them again at the same time. Such measures are stimulating and have the opposite effect of raising the interest rate. I believe that the demand for the US currency could decrease simply due to the fact that the dollars themselves have become or will become much more abundant in the economy. Of course, the government's financing program is a one-time deal (if several more banks do not go bankrupt) and after this one-time tranche, the securities sales program will resume. But at the moment, the situation is the opposite.

Both wave patterns do not disregard the possibility of growth, so I do not see any reason to sound the alarm yet. The situation is a little unusual and a little unexpected, but wave patterns do not always turn out to be perfect in appearance.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the uptrend section has ended. So now you can consider short positions with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.0284, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci. At this time, a correction wave 2 or b can still be built, in this case it will take a more extended form. It is advisable to open shorts now on the MACD's bearish signals.

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The wave pattern of GBP/USD suggests the construction of a downtrend. At this time, you can consider shorts with targets located near 1.1641, which equates to a Fibonacci 38.2% reversal of the MACD to the downside. A Stop Loss order could be placed above the peaks of waves e and b. Wave c may take a less extended form, but for now I expect the pair to fall by another 400-500 pips at least (from the current marks).

Chin Zhao,
Chuyên gia phân tích của InstaForex
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