Forecast-

Traders eye today's ADP non-farm employment data, the GDP and major event - the FOMC statement. The job creation data is likely to show that the U.S. growth is in a higher phase. The Federal Reserve is expected to affirm its own confidence in the health of the recovery by taking another step to scale down its easy-money strategy. The central bank is going to continue its tapering program by another $10 billion, to $45 billion a month. The advance report on the first quarter GDP growth is going to look bad because of the severe winter weather and slower inventory accumulation. Economists predict growth will drop to 1% from 2.6% in the fourth quarter.

Review-

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in March, declined slightly in April. The Index now stands at 82.3 (1985=100), down from 83.9 in March. The Present Situation Index decreased to 78.3 from 82.5, while the Expectations Index was virtually unchanged at 84.9 versus 84.8 in March. Meanwhile, the FOMC meeting in the coming 2 days will divert traders' concentration towards long-term goal rather than a short one.

Technical view-

Forecast

Gold traded lower once again and reached the $1,268 mark; however, some fundamental issues made it little more volatile on charts. Once again gold is trading below $1,300 and as we can see on the charts, gold touched the broken trend line which was unable to hold prices up for the 3rd time in mid-April. The upside reversal we witness in gold in the last 2 times is making a pattern of lower highs and lower lows which indicate further weakness ahead. At the same time, a black cloud covers the candle just below the broken trade line, hinting for another downside move. Although the last 2 downside moves were little away from the full target around $1,262 or even lower, indicators are still trading in negative mode.

On a positional basis, until the metal crosses the $1,330.40, we are expecting much lower levels to $1,264.80, $1,262, $1,255, $1,246.80, $1,238, $1,231 and even $1,216.30-$1,213 levels.

Intraday levels-

For the last couple of hours, the metal is forming an lower lows and lower highs. In Asia's trading session the metal is trading at $1,295.50 levels. On the upside, the hourly bearish pattern will become invalid, once the metal crosses the $1,296.10 level, then it will move to $1,297.80, $1,301, $1,303.5 and $1,306.0. Solid buyers will be back only above $1,306.60 levels. On the upside, $1,306.60, and on the downside, $1,285 are the key levels. Until gold trades above $1,293, don't look at sell side.

Recommendations- cmp $1,294.70.

Risky traders- Sell below $1,293 for targets at $1,291.70, $1,286, and add more shorts below $1,285.

Safe traders- Sell below $1,291.70 for targets at $1,286, $1,282.70 and $1,277.

Buy with sl $1,293 for targets at $1,296, $1,297.80, $1,300, $1,303.50 and $1,306.60. Add more above $1,306.60.

NOTE- Panic situation is below $1,285.

Huge buying is above $1,306.60.

Adopt a strategy and trade safely.