Forex Analysis & Reviews: 30.07.2015 - Technical analysis of...

30.07.2015 05:14 AM

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 30, 2015

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After the FOMC meeting, the euro edged down against the greenback to the weakest intraday close for 11 straight sessions.

"Federal Reserve officials face a conflict as they plan to start raising interest rates later this year: There has been a lot of progress in their goal for U.S. job growth, but little in their objective of modestly rising consumer prices," Jon Hilsenrath writes in his article.

The Fed kept the interest rates unchanged at 0-0.25%. The US economic activity sligtly grew, employment rose higly, and the unemployment rate fell.

Today, traders keep an eye on the data on the US advance GDP on a quarterly basis and unemployment claims. Besides, the Spanish flash CPI and GDP reports are due to be released today too. We expect optimistic data from Spain, but the trade remains influenced by the US statistics.

Technical view: The euro bulls lost the momentum, rejected thrice at 50DSMA and close below 20DSMA at yesterday's session.

Sell on lower lows and lower highs on the H1 chart. The pair made a double top at 1.1084 manage to gain support by the parallel level 1.0967. On the four-hour chart, the pair has been trading in an ascending bearish channel, rejected at the upper end of the trendline willing to go further down.

Until the pair trades below 1.1085 sell on rise in the intraday. The supply zone remains between 1.1085 and 1.1100 50DSMA. Until the price close below 1.1100, sell on rise in the positional trade. Monthly support is at 1.0730.

Intraday resistance seems to be at 1.1000, 1.1020 and 1.1050. Support is at 1.0960,1.0925 and 1.0900. In case, if the pair loses the 1.0850, selling will accelerate. The Federal Reserve and the ECB monetary policy differentiation favours the longer-term bearish trend.

The safe-selling trade is available only below 1.0920 aimed at 1.0870 and 1.0850. The selling accelerates only below 1.0850. The selling opportunity indicated below 1.0950. The immediate target is at 1.0930. The selling accelerates only below 1.0920.