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Ruble purchases look risky
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Mounting tension is observed on the oil market amid the fact that Iran's nuclear program negotiations between the six and Teheran were postponed again. In case of lifting sanctions, over 2 million barrels of crude oil will be daily delivered to the market.
Amid the oversupplied market, traders suspended making deals on black gold, and crude prices began moving sideways after yesterday's decline. Now, Brent crude is consolidating around the level of $57 a barrel.
Approaching the long-awaited meeting, commodity and currency experts discuss potential consequences of lifting sanctions on Teheran. Most analysts consider the Russian ruble to be the most badly hurt currency as Iran is Russia's main competitor among the world's suppliers of oil. However, experts' concerns look reasonable allowing for the current situation on the market. The ruble has already shown signs of weakness.


Comment of A. Davydov:
Yesterday's nosedive of crude prices depressed the Russian ruble and the USD/RUB pair entered the territory above the level of 56 rubles.
Uncertainty about further developments in Greece is among factors behind the current situation on the market.
Investors have to close risky positions amid dropping crude prices and mounting concerns about the Greek crisis. All these result in the weakening ruble.
However, the depreciation of the Russian national currency is slowing down influenced by encouraging data on the inflation rate in the country. The inflation rate is slacking off faster than analysts expected. That makes experts more positive about the beginning of economic recovery.
Thus, the USD/RUB pair is heading towards the level of 58 rubles.
End of comment


Now traders are awaiting response from the Central Bank of Russia. In May, the Russian regulator made a decision on weekly foreign currency purchases in order to prevent the Russian ruble from strengthening and to increase its foreign currency reserves. It is perhaps time for the regulator to revise its decision.

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