Latest COT report and weekly outlook for GBP/USD

The COT report showed an increase in open interest in the pound (152613 (+2624)). But, despite this, the former activity in operations with the indicated currency was no longer observed. The total position retained an insignificant advantage for the short one (long 125744 - short 127367), while the total value of short deals declined due to investments in long positions (long +4803 - short -125).

The main conclusion

The strengthening of the bullish direction by the Commercials group and the pause in the actions of the Non-Commercial representatives will contribute to the formation of corrective slow down.

Technical picture

The preconditions for the COT report combined with supports (1.2777-11 lower limit of the daily cloud + weekly Kijun + monthly Fibo Kijun), contributed to the appearance of a correction. The breakdown of the supports will return the downward trend, for which a new downward goal will be formed. For example, a target for the breakdown of the daily cloud. At the same time, it should be noted that the current correction, due to the reached support levels, now has good chances of implementation and effectiveness. The nearest resistances are located at 1.2840 (daily short-term trend) and in the area of 1.30 - 1.31 (upper limit of the daily cloud + daily Kijun + weekly Tenkan).

The bulls are currently trying to reach the key levels (weekly long-term trend + central pivot level) in the smaller time frames, which determine the main advantage on H1. A consolidation above 1.2744-56 will open opportunities for a rise to the next pivot points. These are resistance levels of 1.2803 - 1.2862 - 1.2921. On the other hand, the loss of levels 1.2744-56 and the restoration of the downward trend will lead to the completion of the current rally and will allow the bearish players to continue to decline with renewed strength towards the targets that will form the upper time frames.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classical), Moving Average (120)