GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes fell to the corrective level of 100.0% but have not yet been able to close below it. More precisely, the closure was short-lived. A new consolidation of the pair's exchange rate under the level of 100.0% will favor the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 76.4% (1.3860). Yesterday, the UK released a report on inflation in March. According to it, inflation rose from 0.4% y/y to 0.7% y/y. However, judging by the pair's movement immediately after its publication and further, traders did not even understand how to interpret these figures during the day. Is rising inflation a good thing or a bad thing? It seems to be bad, but it seems to be good if it is at a very low level. And if the central bank itself aims for inflation of 2.0% y/y, then how? In general, the British dollar did not receive additional support. However, the fall in quotes did not continue. Trading is now clearly above the level of 100.0%. And today, the information background for the British will again be quite poor. However, yesterday, traders ignored the inflation report, the day before - reports on unemployment and wages. Maybe traders don't need economic data at all right now? Yesterday I assumed that global trends may be changing now for both the euro and the pound. Over the past 13 years, the pound has fallen against the dollar, clearly visible on the weekly chart. At some point, this process should have ended. Maybe now is the right time.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair increased to the level of 1.4003 and a rebound from it. Thus, a reversal was made in favor of the US currency, and a fall in the direction of the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870) began. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today. The rebound of the pair's rate from the level of 23.6% will favor resuming the growth of quotes.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.4084), and the ascending trend line received a new point, through which it now passes. The new closing of the quotes under the trend line will again allow us to count on a strong drop in the British quotes.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Wednesday, the US economic news calendar was again empty, while in the UK, inflation reports were released and the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, gave a speech. However, none of these events affected the mood of traders.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
On Thursday, there will be no economic events in the UK and in the US - report on applications for unemployment benefits. The information background for the pair today will be very weak.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report of April 13 on the Briton was very eloquent. The "Non-commercial" category of traders opened as many as 7,227 new long contracts, which is a lot for the pound. Speculators also opened 930 short contracts. Thus, the mood of the most important category of traders has sharply become more bullish. The number of long contracts in the "Non-commercial" category again exceeds twice the number of short contracts. This means that, in general, the bullish mood among speculators remains, and the pound can continue the growth process.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend buying the British dollar with a target of 1.3986, if there is a rebound from the level of 1.3919 on the hourly chart. Yesterday, there was no exact rebound. Perhaps it is better to use the level of 1.3870. I recommend selling the pound if it is closed under the trend line on the daily chart with a target of 1.3513.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
