4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 85p - 91p - 98p - 71p - 113p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 92p (85p).

The currency pair EUR / USD on Wednesday, November 21, failed to overcome the critical line Kijun-sen from the first attempt. However, most likely, will overcome with the second. From our point of view, the Euro currency has already corrected strongly enough against the US dollar, and the previous local maximum has not been updated. Thus, the technique is completely on the side of the American currency. As for the foundation, there were no important macroeconomic publications in the eurozone today. Orders for durable goods in October in the States showed a serious reduction, much more than the predicted -2.5%. Thus, it was this disappointing report that provoked a slight decrease in the US currency. It is based on this that we believe that tomorrow, there will be a new attempt to overcome the Kijun-Sen line. The European Commission, meanwhile, decided to take action against Italy. What specific measures, while not reported, it will be decided in the coming weeks. As we see, this procedure is not fast and in any case, Italy does not promise anything positive, as well as the European currency. At best, traders will not respond to "punishment" by focusing on US data and the Brexit theme. At worst, this will be the third fundamental factor that will put pressure on the euro. In general, we still do not see, due to which the euro can continue to rise in the medium term.

Trading recommendations:

For the currency pair EUR / USD, at the moment, the correction is completed. Formally, long positions with a view to 1.1486 are again relevant. However, we expect at least one more round of corrective movement, so we recommend opening long positions in small lots.

Orders for sale can also be considered in small lots with the goal of 1.1281 if the pair manages to overcome the critical line Kijun-Sen. In this case, the initiative will go into the hands of bears.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

The red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.