The spot rate broke yesterday the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel at 98.40 leading to acceleration. It made a pull back to these levels and accelerated again. It approaches now the lower limit of its channel at 97.80 suggesting a rebound. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and initiate a more violent bearish channel.

Technical indicators provide sell signals but approach an oversell zone supporting an assumption of a rebound. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term. Furthermore, the spot rate evolves at the levels of the inferior band supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement in case of failure.
As the spot rate approaches its support, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we suggest a buy at the level of 97.80 with the 1st objective at 98.40 and then at 98.60. A breakthrough 97.60 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its support where we advise a “sell stop” that’s means to sell the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 97.80 with the 1st objective at 97.20 and then at 97.00. A breakthrough 98.00 will invalidate this scenario.