4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -159.7852

Despite the fact that the first trading day of the week ended for the EUR/USD pair without any losses amid the complete absence of any macroeconomic statistics, on Tuesday, July 23, traders rushed to sell the euro again. his can be connected, firstly, with three unsuccessful attempts of the bulls to start an upward trend (the last three fixations above the moving), and secondly, to the expectation of a decrease in the key rate (or deposit rate) of the ECB. The first point is obvious, and the second can be significantly expanded. In fact, the foreign exchange market is rather waiting for specific signals from Mario Draghi about the easing of monetary policy and the resumption of the program of quantitative stimulation of the economy. That is, what tools to support the EU economy will be applied first is unknown, although, most likely, the rate will be lowered (deposit or refinancing). But the fact that the European regulator will go to mitigate monetary policy in the near future practically no one in doubt. That is why there are very few bulls on the market. Someone can say that the Fed is preparing to reduce the rate. Yes, but as we have repeatedly noted, the ECB will soften the already ultra-soft monetary policy, the Fed will lower the rate from the value of 2.5%, and there is no talk of a new QE program now, moreover, the Fed managed to unload its balance sheet at the expense of securities sales.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1292

R3 – 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement. Now, therefore, it is recommended to sell the euro/dollar pair with a target of 1.1169 before the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top.

It is recommended to buy the euro in small lots if the bulls manage to return the pair above the moving average line, which will change the trend to the upward one, and the first goal, in this case, will be the level of 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.