4-hour timeframe

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 59p - 44p - 69p - 59p - 60p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 58p (59p).

The EUR/USD pair ended Thursday, August 15, with another fall. This time, sales of the euro currency were triggered by a strong macroeconomic report on US retail sales in July, which grew by 0.7% in monthly terms, and excluding car sales - by 1.0%, although traders expected growth of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Sales in the "control group" subset grew 1.0% in July, although analysts forecasts were also lower. Thus, in recent weeks, statistics from the US openly pleases the markets. The only thing that does not please the markets is Donald Trump's actions in the international arena, the escalation of the trade conflict with China, which makes the stock market in the "red zone". But fortunately for traders in the foreign exchange market, the skirmishes between Beijing and Washington are not noticeable. But Donald Trump must be furious, since the US dollar is growing again, the ECB does not support the euro in any way, and he does not need it, and the US president can do nothing with high demand for the greenback. There have already been rumors that, under the patronage of Trump, currency interventions can be launched to pull down the dollar, but so far this has not come to this. Thus, Trump's hope remains only on the Fed, which, in his opinion, should lower the rate at least three more times. Meanwhile, more and more traders and analysts are discussing a possible recession into which the United States and the entire world economy could fall. Too many in recent months and years have happened geopolitical, trade conflicts and disagreements in the world. Inflation is not high enough in both the European Union and the US, and China's GDP is slowing down, which is already a reason for panic. However, we are interested in all these factors only in the context of the euro/dollar pair. And here everything is much simpler, since the Fed and the ECB are ready to soften the monetary policy, and collapses in the US stock market, as we see, do not particularly affect the dollar in the foreign exchange market. However, due to good statistics, the Fed may not reduce the rate quickly and sharply. Powell already noted that the regulator will respond to economic indicators, and not just lower the rate, following the requests of Trump. Therefore, macroeconomic statistics and the technical picture remain as the main factors. From a technical point of view, the Ichimoku indicator generated a new "dead cross" sell signal, and the price crossed the Ichimoku cloud, so the way down is open.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair resumed the downward movement. The support level of 1.1119 can be overcome at the current bar. Thus, it is now recommended to sell the euro with a target level of 1.1045, which is located in close proximity to the pair's 2-year low. Buying euros is now impractical.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.