EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! On March 26, the euro currency continued to grow. The upward trend line makes it exactly clear what is the mood of most traders now - "bullish". Thus, I can say with confidence that the euro continues to recover against the dollar and I believe it is correct. The US dollar has grown too much in the past month. The recent actions of the Federal Reserve and the government, which have decided to provide unprecedented amounts of assistance to the US economy, can not but mean that everything is not very good in the US right now. Over the past day, the country also came out on top in the world for coronavirus diseases. Thus, if earlier traders looked favorably at the dollar, now they are afraid to store their assets in it. Fixing the pair's exchange rate under the trend line will work in favor of the US currency and the beginning of the fall.
EUR/USD – 4H.
According to the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.1065) on the new grid of Fibo levels. So, at the moment, I can say that the overall correction against the strong growth of the dollar is exactly 50%. Fibo can retreat from this level with a reversal in favor of the US dollar and some decline in the direction of correctional levels of 38.2% (1.0964) and 23.6% (1.0840). At the same time, the mood due to the trend line on the lowest chart remains "bullish". Fixing the exchange rate above the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the next corrective levels of 61.8% (1.1167) and 76.4% (1.1294). No indicator has any pending divergences on March 27.
EUR/USD – Daily.
As seen on the daily chart, the picture for the EUR/USD pair is identical to the picture on the 4-hour chart. The same grid of Fibo levels. However, what is happening now in the market is more clearly visible on the daily chart. The rebound of quotes from the Fibo level of 50.0% will allow the euro/dollar pair to perform a downward turn and start the process of falling. In principle, the pair has now returned to the levels at which it was trading before the global pandemic was announced. However, it is too early to talk about calming traders, the pair's activity remains very high, and accordingly, there is a panic mood among traders.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
The weekly chart also continues the growth process. At the moment, the breakdown of the lower line of the "narrowing triangle" looks false. If today does not follow the collapse of quotes, then I will again consider the goal of 1.1600 for purchases of the euro currency in the future. Fixing quotes under the upward trend line will work in favor of the US currency and the pair's fall will resume.
Overview of fundamentals:
On March 26, the US released a report on GDP. The main indicator of the economy in the fourth quarter was 2.1%, as expected by traders. But the main surprise was waiting for the players a little later. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in one week was 3.3 million applications. This is an absolute anti-record for the past few decades.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - change in the level of expenditure of the population (14:30 GMT).
US - change in the level of income of the population (14:30 GMT).
US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (16:00 GMT).
On March 27, there will be no important economic reports in either the US or Europe. It is unlikely that traders at this time will work out reports on changes in personal income or spending of Americans. The rate of spread of the epidemic in the United States is much more important now.
COT report (Commitments of Traders):
A new COT report will be released this afternoon. I expect that it will reflect a reduction in the total number of short contracts and an increase in long. In the past three weeks, speculators have been getting rid of short contracts, not believing that the dollar will grow again. If this trend continues, the prospects for growth of the euro currency will also continue. Hedgers in recent weeks have been increasing their short-term contracts for the euro.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
The situation for the EUR/USD pair is a bit confusing. I recommend staying in purchases until the quotes close below the trend line on the hourly chart. The goals are 1.1167 and 1.1294. The rebound of quotes on the 4-hour chart from the Fibo level of 50.0% will allow you to open sales of the euro currency, but I would recommend that you wait for the closing under the trend line on the hourly chart as confirmation of this signal. The goals are 1.0964 and 1.0840.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
