EUR/USD – 1H.
On November 5, the EUR/USD pair continued the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 23.6% (1.1817) all day and only "calmed down" around this level. Bull traders have worked out the information background of recent days with a vengeance, now it is quite possible to turn the pair in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in quotes in the direction of the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.1746). By and large, traders continue to be in a restless state. There are still no election results, counting is now in its third day, and all votes are still not counted in key states. Moreover, some states have said that the count may be delayed until next week, which means that we will not know exactly who will be the next President of the United States for several more days. The paradox of the situation is that a victory in four of the five key and still undecided states will be enough for Donald Trump to win the final victory. The total number of electoral votes in the States of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania is 68. And Donald Trump needs 56 votes to win. Thus, if Trump wins in the most "rich" states for electoral votes, then it is he who will win the final election victory, despite Biden's serious margin at this time. Arizona and Nevada are currently leaning toward Joe Biden, and with such results, it is the Democratic candidate who wins.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes returned to the side corridor. The growth process is continuing in the direction of its upper limit of 1.1907. Thus, traders again do not have a "bearish" or "bullish" mood, at least on this chart it is not visible. Since the activity of traders remains quite high, I recommend trading, still relying on data from the hourly chart as the most operational.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair quotes returned to the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825). A new rebound of the pair's rate from this level will again work in favor of the US currency and resume falling in the direction of the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.1566). However, more attention now needs to be paid to smaller charts, such as the hourly chart.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair, but in the long term. In the short term, a drop is preferable.
Overview of fundamentals:
On November 5, there were no economic reports or news in the European Union, and the results of the Fed's monetary committee meeting were summed up in America. As you can see, traders did not react to this event and continue to wait for the final results of the presidential election.
News calendar for the US and the European Union:
US - unemployment rate (13:30 GMT).
US - change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (13:30 GMT).
US - change in the average hourly wage (13:30 GMT).
On November 6, important reports such as Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate will be released in the US. These reports may attract attention from traders, and the US dollar on Friday may recover some of the positions lost during the week.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was quite informative. The most important category of non-commercial traders got rid of 12 thousand long contracts and 1 thousand short contracts during the reporting week. Thus, speculators do not believe in the further growth of the European currency and get rid of more purchases of this currency. This process, I must say, has been going on for several weeks, so a trend is emerging. Over the past two months, the total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators has been steadily falling, while the number of short contracts has been growing slightly. Thus, I am inclined to the option with a further fall in the euro currency quotes.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend opening sales of the euro currency with targets of 1.1778 and 1.1746, if the pair closes under the triangle on the hourly chart. Purchases of the pair will be possible with a target of 1.1881 if the quotes are fixed above the triangle.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - large market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
