EUR/USD – 1H.
On February 9, the EUR/USD pair continued the growth process all day, having made a consolidation above the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2104) on the new Fibo grid, stretched along the segment of the fall in quotes in January and early February. Thus, after the January losses, the euro currency has recovered by 40% or a little more. And given the nature of the news coming from the US, demand for the US dollar may remain low in the near future. The dollar index is also falling, for the third day in a row. Therefore, I can make a clear conclusion: the dollar is falling, and the euro is not growing. There are two main topics in the US right now. The first is the approval by the US Senate of a $ 1.9 trillion economic aid package, and it seems that there will be no problems with this since both houses of Congress and the president can pass this bill without the help of Republicans. The second is the proceedings in the Senate that began yesterday concerning the impeachment of Donald Trump, who has already left the post of president of the country. Many experts and analysts believe that impeachment will not be announced, since it will take 67 votes of senators to approve this decision. Moreover, there is no special sense in this – Trump is no longer president. However, yesterday it turned out that the Senate could still impeach Trump. At least 56 senators out of 100 voted that the impeachment procedure is legal and constitutional. 6 Republicans voted "for" this decision. Also, Trump's defense in this case looks rather weak. For example, the speech of his main defender in the Senate, Bruce Castor, caused a lot of criticism yesterday, including the former president himself. Also, some sources close to the Senate and Trump report that it is very difficult for the former president to find good lawyers since no one wants to work with him. Thus, Trump's hope is only for 34 Republican senators. If the 34 Republicans in the Senate vote against impeachment, Trump will be saved.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes completed a close above the descending trend line, so the mood of traders changed to "bullish". Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the level of 1.2204. Today, the divergence is not observed in any of the indicators.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a breakdown of the lower border of the upward trend corridor, which turned out to be false. Therefore, at the moment, the pair has performed a reversal in favor of the euro and resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On February 9, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States were empty. The influence of the information background on this day was absent.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (13:00 GMT).
US - consumer price index (13:30 GMT).
US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (19:00 GMT).
On February 10, ECB and Fed Presidents Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell will speak, and a fairly important report on inflation in the United States will be released.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released. And I must say that he was very surprised. Let me remind you that the European currency has been losing ground over the past week. Therefore, the weakening of the "bullish" mood in the category of "Non-commercial" traders is quite understandable. However, speculators at the end of the reporting week closed as many as 23 thousand long contracts and at the same time increased 11 thousand short-contracts. Thus, their mood became more "bearish". Nevertheless, the growth of the euro currency quotes last Friday and earlier this week indicates that speculators may have rushed with a massive sell-off of the euro.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
It was recommended to buy the euro currency with the targets of 1.2151 and 1.2197 on the hourly chart when closing quotes above the descending trend line on the 4-hour chart. Now, these positions can be maintained. It is not recommended to open sales today, although an important information background may lead to a certain drop in the pair.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
