EUR/USD

The euro decided to continue rising on Monday. The price broke the strong resistance of the 50.0% corrective level, which coincides with the February 17 low. The price settled above the MACD indicator line. The euro rose against the growth of yields on US government bonds, against the decline in the price of gold, against the fall in stock indices. That is, against all foreign markets. Finally, the euro has grown against economic data for the euro area; the balance of payments in February fell from 30.5 billion euros to 25.9 billion, the volume of construction in the same month decreased by 2.12%. Trading volumes were higher than Friday and Thursday last week, but not higher than the rise from 1.1800, that is, on the 5th or 6th. We can assume that there is a false speculative movement with short positions being closed at stop losses ahead of the European Central Bank meeting on April 22nd. But, as we said, the trading volumes are not very large, so there may be another surge upward, above 1.2100, where there is probably another cluster of stop losses. This level coincides with a 61.8% correction from the movement on January 6-March 31.

There are no reversal signs on the four-hour timescale, as well as on the daily one. Accordingly, we expect the single currency to continue to grow to the target level of 1.2100 with a high probability of going beyond (not very large) due to stop losses being closed at this level.