empty
 
 
23.04.2021 01:52 PM
Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD for April 23, 2021

The most significant event yesterday and the entire trading week for the main currency pair of the Forex market was the scheduled meeting of the European Central Bank, following which the ECB was to announce its decision on interest rates. Few expected that the European regulator would change rates. The main interest rate remained at zero, the rate on deposits at the level of -0.50%, and the margin rate remained at the level of 0.25%. At the same time, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank will continue to consistently implement the PEPP, which has become a true crisis measure due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. It should be emphasized here that the monetary policy of the ECB already provided for the purchase of assets until inflation rises to the regulator's target of 2%. The whole point, of course, is in the volume of the PEPP, which, as a result of the invasion of the coronavirus epidemic in the European region, increased by a total amount to no less than €1.850 billion, and its duration is focused on the end of March 2022.

Naturally, much here will depend on the further epidemiological situation and, of course, on macroeconomic statistics. The ECB Governing Council considers the third stage of the operation to ensure sufficient liquidity, which takes place within the framework of the TLTRO program, as another extremely important factor. And this program is quite successful and positive since the banking sector and households receive substantial support due to super-cheap loans, and it is much easier for them to breathe in this coronavirus period. In general, according to the ECB Governing Council, so far everything is going according to plan. This is also indicated by the macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone, which has recently shown an improvement in indicators, and consistent.

ECB President Christine Lagarde during her traditional press conference, after the ECB's decision on rates, paid special attention to the progressive rates of mass vaccinations in the European region, which will undoubtedly have a positive effect on the economic recovery. However, the current situation still remains shrouded in a cloud of uncertainty, so it's too early to talk about full normalization. Much of the ECB's future monetary policy will depend on the subsequent fight against the insidious coronavirus pandemic, and the incoming macroeconomic reports. Lagarde believes that it is still not worth using the full scope of the PEPP, it is much more expedient to make decisions taking into account the changes in the pandemic and economic situation in the European Union.

To complete the introduction, which is quite impressive in its size, and move on to examining the EUR/USD charts, I note that no sensations were noted either in the ECB's decision on rates or in Christine Lagarde's speech. In principle, everything was in line with market expectations. The main fundamental events of today will be the publication of business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors, which will come from both Europe and the United States. By the way, statistics on these indicators have already been released from France, Germany, and the eurozone, and they turned out to be almost all stronger than the predicted values. This factor once again confirms the correctness of the ECB's course, and at this stage may further affect the strengthening of the single European currency.

Daily

This image is no longer relevant

However, the main task of the euro bulls at this point remains unresolved. Let me remind you that to continue to grow, it is vitally important to pass the price zone near 1.2080 and consolidate above the most important technical level 1.2100. It is even more obvious that the subsequent bullish scenario will take shape if the quotes consolidate above the level of 1.2120. After the last three daily candles highlighted on the chart, today, at the end of this article, the pair demonstrates a very confident growth, in case of continuation of which the market will once again test the strength of the level 1.2079, where the maximum trading values were shown on April 20. If the breakdown of this resistance takes place, then there is already up to 1.2100 a stone's throw. I guess that around this mark there will be a struggle between the opposing sides for the closing price of today and weekly trading. Let me not mislead anyone today and refrain from specific trading recommendations. The current situation is not suitable for this. I very much hope that on Monday, given the results of this week, there will be more food for thought, and, consequently, more options for entering the market.

Ivan Aleksandrov,
Chuyên gia phân tích của InstaForex
© 2007-2024
Kiếm lợi nhuận từ những biến đổi giá của tiền điện tử với InstaForex.
Tải MetaTrader 4 và mở giao dịch đầu tiên của bạn.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    THAM GIA CUỘC THI
  • Tiền gửi lần truy cập
    Ký quỹ tài khoản của bạn với $3000 và nhận được $1000 nhiều hơn!
    Trong Tháng 4 chúng tôi xổ $1000 trong chiến dịch Chancy Deposit!
    Có được một cơ hội giành chiến thắng bằng việc ký quỹ $3000 vào một tài khoản giao dịch. Đáp ứng được điều kiện này, bạn trở thành một người tham gia chiến dịch.
    THAM GIA CUỘC THI
  • Giao dịch khôn ngoan, thành công
    Nạp tiền vào tài khoản của bạn với ít nhất $ 500, đăng ký cuộc thi và có cơ hội giành được các thiết bị di động.
    THAM GIA CUỘC THI
  • 100% tiền thưởng
    Cơ hội duy nhất của bạn để nhận 100% tiền thưởng khi gửi tiền
    NHẬN THƯỞNG
  • 55% Tiền thưởng
    Đăng ký tiền thưởng 55% cho mỗi lần gửi tiền của bạn
    NHẬN THƯỞNG
  • 30% tiền thưởng
    Nhận 30% tiền thưởng mỗi khi bạn nạp tiền vào tài khoản của mình
    NHẬN THƯỞNG

Các bài báo được đề xuất

Không thể nói chuyện ngay bây giờ?
Đặt câu hỏi của bạn trong phần trò chuyện.
Widget callback