GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a rebound from the ascending trend line during Wednesday and at the same time from the level of 23.6% (1.3731). As a result, a reversal was made in favor of the British, and growth resumed. The quotes reached the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3792) on a small grid but could not close higher. There was a rebound with a reversal in favor of the US currency and some fall. At the moment, the pair is located between the trend line and the level of 1.3792. Yesterday was important for traders of the pound/dollar pair only because of the economic data in the United States. In the UK, the information background was very weak. Only one index of business activity in the manufacturing sector did not have any special impact on the mood of traders. I have already mentioned the American reports. Traders mainly worked out the ADP report yesterday, which turned out to be much weaker than expectations.
Thus, the British dollar is still in demand in the market. However, bull traders need to develop their advantage and close above 1.3792. It may require new strong news and events. This week, only American statistics on Friday can support the British. In particular, the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is key this week, like last week's speech by Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole. It is on the state of the labor market and Jerome Powell that the Fed's monetary policy now depends, and therefore the prospects for the US currency. In the UK, nothing interesting is happening right now. Accordingly, traders react only to events and reports in the United States. Britain continues to be in the post-Brexit period and limbo due to Scotland's desire to leave the United Kingdom. It is not known when a new independence referendum will take place in Scotland and whether it will take place at all. However, this factor may play a very negative role for the British currency in the future.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair performed a new reversal in favor of the British currency on the 4-hour chart after rebounding from the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3730) on the small Fibo grid. Thus, the growth process can be continued toward the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.3829). A rebound from it will allow us to count on a slight drop in quotes in the direction of the level of 23.6%. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
US - foreign trade balance (12:30 UTC).
US - FOMC member Rafael Bostic will deliver a speech (17:00 UTC).
On Thursday in the UK, the economic events calendar does not contain a single entry that deserves attention. There are also few such records in the USA. Those two reports that look more or less interesting are unlikely to interest traders so much that they rush to work them out.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from August 24 on the British showed that the mood of major players had become sharply more "bearish." During the reporting week, speculators closed 2,266 long contracts and immediately opened 18,903 short contracts. Thus, now the total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators is less than the total number of short contracts. In one week, the mood of speculators has changed dramatically. However, can we conclude that the Briton will now continue to fall? As I have already said, traders have big problems with closing at 1.3600, and at the moment, the British dollar's quotes continue to grow. The further fall of the British is not guaranteed.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend buying the pair if the hourly chart closes above the level of 1.3792, with targets of 1.3830 and 1.3837. I recommend selling the pound with targets of 1.3731 and 1.3692 if a close is made under the trend line on the hourly chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
