EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair made a sluggish attempt on Tuesday to start a new process of falling. However, nothing came of it. The pair was in a minimal area all day and could not again perform a fall to the level of 1.1704. The downward trend corridor continues to characterize the current mood of traders as "bearish." Closing the pair's exchange rate under the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1704) will work in favor of continuing the fall of quotes in the direction of the next level of 1.1629.
Meanwhile, today is when traders will finally find out what decisions the Fed has made regarding the quantitative stimulus program. Recently, a huge amount of talk has been going around this topic. However, analysts at this time can not agree on what to expect from the Fed tonight. The regulator may announce the curtailment of the QE program today or maybe at the next meeting in November.
The US currency rose quite strongly at the end of last week. However, this week, it shows movement in a sideways corridor. Thus, I conclude that the "full combat readiness mode" is enabled, and now traders will wait for the meeting results. There is no point in trying to predict the pair's movement tonight. If the Fed makes an important decision on the QE program and does not postpone the decision until November, then the pair can go up and down by 100 points, if not more. It is often the case. And even if the Fed reschedules the announcement of the curtailment of QE to November, traders can still arrange a real "storm" in the evening. But based on the results of this storm, it will be possible to draw already considered conclusions and decide what sky the pair is in now and what can be expected from it in the future. Therefore, I recommend today not to panic and not to rush with trading decisions. The pair is currently standing in one place, so it still does not make much sense to open new trading deals.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes closed under the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1782). Thus, the process of falling quotes can be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.1606). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today. There are no signals to buy the pair at this time.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - FOMC decision on the main interest rate (18:00 UTC).
US - accompanying FOMC statement (18:00 UTC).
US - economic forecast from the FOMC (18:00 UTC).
US - FOMC press conference (18:30 UTC).
On September 22, the calendar of economic events of the European Union does not contain a single interesting entry. However, in the United States today, there will be an announcement of the results of the Fed meeting and a press conference with Jerome Powell. Thus, the information background will be very strong today. However, we will most likely be able to see strong movements of the pair only in the evening.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that during the reporting week, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders practically did not change. Speculators closed 4,195 long contracts on the euro and 4,276 short contracts. Thus, the total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators decreased to 187 thousand, and the total number of short contracts - to 160 thousand. Over the past few months, the "Non-commercial" category of traders has been actively getting rid of long contracts on the euro and increasing short. However, at the same time, the euro has grown very slightly during this time. Now speculators have stopped getting rid of only long contracts for the euro. Thus, this week the European currency may try to start a new upward trend.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Yesterday, I recommended buying the pair with a target of 1.1772 when the quotes rebound from the level of 1.1704 on the hourly chart. Now, these transactions should be kept open at least until the evening. In the evening, you can set the Stop Loss below 1.1704. I recommend selling if there is a close below the level of 1.1704 on the hourly chart, with the level of 1.1629.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
