As the Brexit crisis deepens, the two giants of Wall Street have completely different views on the final result. Goldman Sachs sees a 50 percent probability of a ratified deal while JP Morgan talks about the postponement. If British Prime Minister Theresa May cannot agree on a Brexit deal with Parliament, she will have to decide whether to put Brexit on hold or plunge the world's fifth largest economy into chaos.
Goldman Sachs with a probability of 50 percent believes that May deal will be ratified. Additionally, lawmakers will ultimately block the exit without a deal, if necessary. The probability of exit without a deal is 15 percent and the total cancellation of Brexit is about 35 percent. "There is a majority in the House of Commons who wants to avoid Brexit" without a deal ", but there is no majority in the House of Commons ready to support the second referendum, at least at this stage," noted Goldman.
JPMorgan believes that May will seek to extend the deadline for approval until March 29. "We still believe that it is likely for the Prime Minister, instead of allowing unsuccessful voting and subsequent ministerial resignations, will try to act proactively and will seek to extend the deadlines," the company noted. The divergence of views of the two most influential banks on Wall Street shows how diligent investors in reading the maze of charts on the eve of Brexit, which is the most significant political and economic movement of the United Kingdom since the Second World War. Recall that most large banks incorrectly predicted the results of the 2016 referendum.