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18.11.2022 09:07 AM
Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on November 18

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

The test of 1.0361 happened when the MACD line went down quite a lot from zero, which limited the downside potential of the pair, especially ahead of important data on inflation in the Euro area.

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ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech did not change the direction of EUR/USD much. However, pressure returned after the release of the CPI data for the eurozone, which showed a slowdown in price growth. Strong data on issued building permits and new foundations laid in the US also affected the market, but the balance returned by the end of the day.

Today, there is nothing on the eurozone apart from another speech from Lagarde and ECB board member Joachim Nagel, so may continue in the side channel. In the afternoon, the US will release a report on home sales in the secondary market, but it will not have much impact on dollar. If euro buyers fail to get above 1.0402, pressure will return in EUR/USD by the end of the week.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0402 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0463. Growth could occur, but there needs to be hawkish statements from the ECB president and bad statistics on the US. Also, remember that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it.

Euro can also be bought at 1.0357, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0402 and 1.0463.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0357 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0289. Pressure will return if buyers remain inactive this morning. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it.

Euro can also be sold at 1.0402, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0357 and 1.0289.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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