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09.06.2023 09:03 AM
卖家加强对比特币的压力:是否值得等待$25k的突破?

比特币的累积和价格的整合运动的一个月的平静结束了,价格的波动突然激增。仅仅几天内,比特币的价格在惯常波动范围之外进行了牛市和熊市的突破。价格冲击的发起人总是卖家,他们引发了牛市的反应。

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大多数买家的反应是对称的,并足以保护关键水平。然而,在低于300亿美元的交易量下,牛市很难实现完全的趋势反转。宏观经济新闻也没有增加积极因素,这在市场上形成了令人担忧的不确定情绪。

基本因素

让我们暂时离开海外发生的事情,回到欧元区,最近通货膨胀率达到了2022年初的水平。欧洲央行的鹰派政策取得了成效,但严重削弱了经济的潜力。根据欧洲统计局的数据,欧元区在第一季度就进入了衰退阶段,GDP已经连续第二个季度下降。

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美国的情况也仍然复杂,因为周四公布的有关美国五月份预期消费者价格水平的预测为4.2%,而四月份为4.9%。这表明通货膨胀速度可能加快,降至-0.7%,这为投资者增添了乐观情绪。

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同时,公布的初次申请失业救济的数据并没有带来乐观情绪。该指标上升至261,000,而几个月的统计数据都没有超过240,000。一方面,这是提高美联储利率的额外制约因素,但另一方面,显然监管机构正在失去与通胀作斗争的唯一方法。

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SEC continues its pursuit of the largest crypto exchanges, which have collectively suffered losses of around $2 billion in the form of user fund outflows. Binance US has also stopped accepting US dollars after an SEC lawsuit, further undermining trust in centralized exchanges.

BTCUSD Analysis

Investors are actively responding to negative events in the crypto market. It is reported that over the past month and a half, almost all categories of addresses have significantly replenished their BTC reserves, and the number of some groups has reached an absolute maximum. Overall, traders and investors have withdrawn over 15,000 BTC from crypto exchanges in the past 1.5 months.

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同时,几个主要的在线资源的分析师指出,在整合期结束后,卖方压力显著增加。截至6月9日,熊市主导着加密货币市场,迫使买家做出反应。

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儘管如此,不能說熊市完全控制了比特幣市場的局勢。最近買家的反應,導致比特幣形成了“牛市吞噬”,顯示了上漲的潛力。然而,在目前這個階段,外部因素和市場情緒不允許多頭實現上漲的動力。

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BTCUSD價格在$26.6k附近波動,並且試圖回到$26.6k-$27.5k的區間內。目前賣家成功維持了$26.6k的支撐水平,這為熊市開啟了向下推壓價格至$25.5k的前景。相反地,買家需要進入$26.6k-$27.5k的區間,以繼續向上走向$28k。

結論

市場再次出現了平靜,賣家稍微佔優勢,他們將價格維持在他們需要的區間內。很可能周末的交易活動會進一步下降,在聯邦儲備委員會會議和通脹數據公佈前,將會看到更活躍的價格波動,雙方都會試圖實現自己的計劃。

Artem Petrenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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