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09.05.2025 11:31 AM
DXY. 美元持續對復甦保持希望
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今天,追蹤美元兌一籃子主要貨幣表現的美國美元指數(DXY)在亞洲時段接近100.75的幾乎一個月高點後處於看漲整固階段。該指數正邁向連續第三週的上漲,看來在四月觸及多年的低點後正準備繼續復甦。

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本週,美聯儲主席Jerome Powell強調了美國貿易關稅的不確定性,呼籲保持耐心,直至出現更清晰的情況。他的言論表明,聯儲局短期內不打算降息。此外,美國和英國最近的貿易協議激發了與其他國家達成類似協議的希望,這有助於緩解全面貿易戰帶來的經濟衰退擔憂,從而為美元提供額外支持。

地緣政治風險,包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭的長期衝突、中東緊張局勢升級以及印度和巴基斯坦之間的爭端,亦加強了美元作為避險資產的短期看漲前景。然而,美元多頭仍然謹慎,可能會在北美時段一些關鍵FOMC成員的講話之前退場。這些演說將被仔細分析,以獲取未來降息的信號及其對美元指數的潛在影響。

技術展望:從技術角度來看,美國美元指數仍處於看漲整固階段。在4小時圖上,價格成功突破了100期簡單移動平均線(SMA),這表明上行動能正在出現。此外,1小時和4小時圖上的震盪指標均已進入正值區間。然而,需要注意的是,日線圖上的震盪指標尚未進入正值區間,因此美元多頭應保持謹慎。

下表顯示了今天美元相對於一籃子貨幣的百分比變動。

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美元對紐西蘭元最強勢。

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Irina Yanina,
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