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07.08.2019 01:38 PM
US yields continue to slide, USD/JPY to touch 105.00

US Treasuries have continued to strengthen with the 10-year yield declining to fresh 34-month lows near 1.65%. The 2-year yield has also declined to 1.57%, the lowest level since October 2017.

Fed Funds futures have now fully priced in a further rate cut during September meeting with a 75% chance of a further 25 basis-point cut and over 20% chance of a 0.50% cut.

USD/JPY found support below 106.00 in the Asian trade, but rallies were held to 106.30 with a fresh retreat ahead of the New York session's opening. The current yield curve will put strong downward pressure on USD/JPY.

Global central banks have continued to ease monetary policy with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting rates to a record low of 1.00% from 1.50%, while the Indian and Thai central banks have also delivered rate cuts.

Hopes for further global monetary easing will provide some net support to equity markets with US futures making tentative gains. Equity-market gains will curb yen support to some extent.

Overall confidence in trade and global growth is, however, liable to weaken further in the short term. It will maintain underlying demand for defensive assets, and net yen demand is likely to increase.

President Trump is likely to launch another barrage of criticism over Federal Reserve policies and protest against dollar strength. Accusations of currency manipulation may also intensify.

Strong US data releases would ease concerns, but there are no major reports this week. Thus, business confidence is likely to slide given the threat of increased tariffs.

Japanese investors will remain extremely wary over US policies, the threat of intervention to weaken the dollar, and sharp currency losses. Capital outflows are likely to remain weak and maintain structural yen demand.

If there is a rapid USD/JPY retreat to 105.00, the Bank of Japan is likely to intervene verbally and trigger a sharp corrective bounce.

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