empty
 
 
01.12.2022 04:16 AM
GBP/USD. Overview for December 1, 2022

This image is no longer relevant

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair traded as slowly as the euro. The market did not see any reason to trade actively and trendily here either, although there were fewer reports relating to the British pound and the dollar. We can therefore draw the same conclusions about the pound. There is currently no reason to anticipate a downward correction because the price is close to the moving average line, and there has not yet been a clear consolidation below it. However, we continue to think that the pound sterling has risen too much in the last month and that there are no more reasons for it to rise.

As was already stated, there was no response to yesterday's GDP and labor market reports. The "polar" nature of these two reports may be to blame for this outcome. Simply put, the GDP report was very strong, and the ADP report was weak (only 127 thousand versus a forecast of 200). As a result, "netting" prevented us from observing the dollar's rise or decline. However, rather than ignore significant data in such circumstances, the market prefers to trade alternately in both directions. In any case, we received a peculiar response and peculiar bidding. We will have to wait until Friday because there will be a few significant reports on Thursday. We want to remind you that you shouldn't consider the nonfarm report to be "trend-forming." Of course, it matters, but the dollar can quickly fluctuate by 100 to 150 points before resuming its previous positions. As a result, if the market is not prepared to buy the US dollar on Friday, it won't be. This refers to those that will cause the significant downward correction we anticipate.

The ADP report: a sign of trouble for nonfarm?

The number of jobs created outside of agriculture in a single month is roughly the same in both the ADP and NonFarm Payrolls reports. ISM and S&P business activity reports are comparable. And they hardly ever coincide with one another, just like business activity indices. They frequently differ in their forecasts and actual values, which are frequently revised later. As a result, one should always approach these data assuming that the values may change in a month. First, the ADP report showed a very small increase in employment—only 127 thousand. As previously stated, a normal value for the American economy is between 200 and 300,000. Although both indicators have not displayed the same dynamics over the past year, the market places a higher value on nonfarm.

Until April 2022, the ADP report grew steadily before declining. With some exceptions, nonfarm rates have been falling for a year. Therefore, it is unquestionably false to infer that nonfarm will also be weak due to ADP's failure. Additionally, Nonfarm has experienced negative dynamics, so we fully anticipate that this report will reveal a lower value than a month ago (261 thousand). But the value from last month might have changed, so it's impossible to say for sure right now. All of this was written so traders would understand that the actual value could be anything, the value from the previous month could change in any direction, and the market could interpret this report however it saw fit. It is, therefore, impossible to forecast where the dollar will move on Friday at this time. Of course, volatility is likely to rise, and we still anticipate that the pair will decline. To understand where the pair may move in the future, we advise waiting several days for either a clear and confident overcoming of the moving average or a clear and confident rebound from it.

This image is no longer relevant

Over the previous five trading days, the GBP/USD pair has averaged 132 points of volatility. This value is "high" for the dollar/pound exchange rate. As a result, we anticipate movement on Thursday, December 1, within the channel, constrained by the levels of 1.1968 and 1.2231. The Heiken Ashi indicator's turning downward indicates a new phase of the corrective movement.

Nearest levels of support

S1 – 1.2024

S2 – 1.1963

S3 – 1.1902

Nearest levels of resistance

R1 – 1.2085

R2 – 1.2146

R3 – 1.2207

Trading Suggestions:

In the 4-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair resumed its upward trend. Therefore, until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down, you should continue holding buy orders with targets of 1,2207 and 1,2231. With targets of 1.1841 and 1.1780, open sell orders should be fixed below the moving average.

Explanations of the illustrations:

Linear regression channels – help determine the current trend. The trend is strong if both are directed in the same direction.

The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) – determines the short-term trend and the direction to trade now.

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators.

The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

Paolo Greco,
ผู้เชี่ยวชาญด้านการวิเคราะห์ของ InstaForex
© 2007-2023
GBPUSD
Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Start trade
Start trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    เข้าร่วมการแข่งขัน
  • Chancy Deposit
    ฝากเงินในบัญชีของคุณใน $3,000 และรับ $1000 ไปเพิ่ม!
    ใน เมษายน ทางเราได้ออก$1000 ภายในแคมเปญ Chancy Deposit !
    คว้าโอกาสที่จะชนะด้วยการฝากเงิน $3,000 ไปในบัญชีเทรด เมื่อทำตามเงื่อนไขนี้แล้ว คุณก็จะกลายเป็นผู้เข้าร่วมแคมเปญ
    เข้าร่วมการแข่งขัน
  • เทรดให้ดีแล้วคว้ารางวัล
    เติมเงินในบัญชีของคุณอย่างน้อย $500 สมัครเข้าร่วมการแข่งขัน และลุ้นรับรางวัลอุปกรณ์ติดต่อสื่อสารแบบพกพา
    เข้าร่วมการแข่งขัน
  • โบนัส 100%
    โอกาสพิเศษของคุณในการรับโบนัส 100% จากเงินฝากของคุณ
    รับโบนัส
  • โบนัส 55%
    สมัครรับโบนัส 55% สำหรับการฝากทุกครั้ง
    รับโบนัส
  • โบนัส 30%
    รับโบนัส 30% ทุกครั้งที่คุณเติมเงินในบัญชีของคุณ
    รับโบนัส

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD. Overview for March 31. The British Chancellor and the head of the Bank of England are too optimistic.

The GBP/USD currency pair quietly continued to rise on Thursday, although there was no significant event to explain it. However, a significant inflation report was released in Germany during

Paolo Greco 09:59 2023-03-31 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Overview for March 31. The euro waited for an opportunity to show new growth

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to move upward. The pair has been growing almost recoilless since the beginning of the week, resulting in such a hazy formulation

Paolo Greco 09:37 2023-03-31 UTC+2

Heavy oil prices will rise

According to Bloomberg, PetroChina is launching a new refinery. Until recently, heavy crude oil traded at a significant discount compared to lighter grades. Now, producers of heavy grades

Irina Yanina 04:29 2023-03-31 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Germany's inflation growth caused a strong reaction

The release of statistics on Germany's inflation growth caused a strong reaction in the EUR/USD pair today. The fact that the report was published in the "green zone" makes

Irina Manzenko 17:42 2023-03-30 UTC+2

ECB monetary policy report

As I have had the opportunity to state more than once, a lot now depends on inflation and the monetary policy of central banks for both pairs. These

Chin Zhao 17:19 2023-03-30 UTC+2

XAU/USD: Strong bullish momentum remains

After yesterday's minor correction, the dollar index (DXY) is falling again today. As of writing, DXY futures were trading near 102.15, 60 pips below last week's close. The price

Jurij Tolin 15:05 2023-03-30 UTC+2

Gold at $2,000 an ounce

According to forecasts by the Dutch bank ING, in the fourth quarter of this year, gold could cost an average of $2,000 an ounce. They base their forecasts

Irina Yanina 14:38 2023-03-30 UTC+2

Markets may see a correction ahead of fresh US data

Risk appetite is increasing as authorities are trying their best to cushion the crisis that is happening to the US banking system. This led to the decrease of dollar demand

Pati Gani 14:15 2023-03-30 UTC+2

USD/CAD: Downward trend in full swing

USD/CAD is in a strong downward trend and has dropped almost 400 pips in less than a week. Last Friday, the loonie was in the area of the 38th figure

Irina Manzenko 14:00 2023-03-30 UTC+2

Bank of England says the UK banking system is in good shape

Pound is ready to storm the March highs, all thanks to the recent statements of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. He said the central bank is going

Jakub Novak 13:23 2023-03-30 UTC+2
หากไม่สะดวกคุยในตอนนี้
ระบุคำถามไว้ได้ใน แชท.