29.09.2023 01:24 PM
GBP/USD. September 29th. The Fed won't rush with new tightening

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the level of 1.2112, reversed in favor of the British pound, and began a confident uptrend towards the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2250), which was worked out as of Friday morning. At the same point, the upper line of the descending trend corridor is located. A rebound from these resistance levels will favor the US dollar and a resumption of the decline towards the levels of 1.2201 and 1.2112. If the pair's rate consolidates above the level of 1.2250, it will increase the chances of further growth towards the next level at 1.2342.

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After the completion of the downward wave yesterday, a new upward wave has begun. However, in order for the waves to allow us to conclude the end of the bearish trend, the pound needs to rise to at least 1.2425. It's much easier to wait for the formation of a new downward wave that does not update the lows of Wednesday–Thursday. However, it is still unknown how the market will act. It is better to operate based on the descending corridor for now.

This morning, the UK released its GDP report for the second quarter, which did not surprise traders. The British economy grew by 0.2%, as expected. The British pound received some support, but after yesterday's start of the upward wave, it can continue to rise even without the influence of the news background.

Also, yesterday, Thomas Barkin of the Fed said that the US Central Bank now has enough time before the next meeting to analyze economic data. Barkin noted that the decision not to raise interest rates in September was correct, and at the November meeting, the Fed may resort to new tightening if the inflation situation requires it. This information did not help the dollar yesterday, but bears also need a break sometimes. Today, almost everything will depend on the level of 1.2250.

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On the 4-hour chart, the pair made a reversal in favor of the British pound after the formation of a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator. Thus, the process of growth towards the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2289) has begun. A rebound of quotes from the level of 1.2289 will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of the decline towards 1.2008. The consolidation of the pair's rate above 1.2289 will increase the probability of further growth towards the upper line of the descending trend corridor.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

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The sentiment of the "non-commercial" trader category over the past reporting week has become less "bullish" again. The number of long contracts in speculators' hands decreased by 12,270 units, while the number of short contracts increased by 221 units. The overall sentiment of major players remains bullish, and the gap between the number of long and short contracts is shrinking every week: already 85,000 versus 55,000. In my opinion, the pound had good prospects for further growth, but now many factors have turned in favor of the US dollar. I do not expect a strong rise in the British pound in the near future. I believe that over time, bulls will continue to get rid of buy positions, as was the case with the euro. The Bank of England can only change the situation on the market if it continues to raise rates longer than planned, but the last meeting showed that this factor should not be relied upon.

News Calendar for the US and the UK:

United Kingdom - GDP in the second quarter (06:00 UTC).

United States - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (12:30 UTC).

United States - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

Friday's economic calendar includes several interesting entries, but none of them are considered highly important. The impact of the information background on market sentiment today may be relatively weak.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trader advice:

Selling the pound today is possible on a bounce from the level of 1.2250, with targets at 1.2201 and 1.2112 on the hourly chart. Buying is possible upon confirmation above the level of 1.2250 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.2342.

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