18.06.2019 07:30 AM
Overview of EUR/USD on June 18th The forecast for the "Regression Channels". Inflation in the European Union may return the demand for the US dollar

4-hour timeframe

This image is no longer relevant

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -68.0492

Monday, June 17, was quite calm for the EUR/USD pair, as there were no important macroeconomic publications on this day. The US and EU calendars were empty. On Tuesday, the euro may receive a fundamental blow again, as the consumer price index for May will be published in the eurozone today. The previous report on inflation recorded a serious slowdown in this indicator(which, incidentally, still remains below US inflation) to 1.2%. If today it turns out that the consumer price index fell even more, that is, below the level of 1.2%, then for the euro, this can have very sad consequences. Also today, the ECB Head Mario Draghi will give a speech and if Draghi touches on the topic of monetary policy, traders can get new reasons and reasons for the sale of the European currency. From a technical point of view, everything is clear and understandable. The trend for the euro/dollar pair has changed to a downward trend, but at the moment, the pair is corrected. Thus, we should wait for the completion of the current round of correction and resume sales. Tomorrow, there will be a summing up of the Fed meeting, from which different groups of traders are waiting for completely different results. Part of the markets is waiting for the rate cut, the announcement of the rate reduction in 2019, and the "hawkish" comments from Powell. Therefore, the probability that market participants will be surprised tomorrow is high.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1200

S2 – 1.1169

S3 – 1.1139

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1261

R3 – 1.1292

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair started an upward correction. Thus, it is recommended selling the euro/dollar pair with the targets of 1.1200 and 1.1169, but after the Heiken-Ashi indicator turned down.

It is recommended to buy the euro currency after traders fix the pair above the moving average line, which will change the trend to an upward one, with the first targets of 1.1292 and 1.1322.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Paolo Greco,
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