EUR/USD

Economic events-

Monday-

· EU economic forecast

· ISM non manufacturing PMI- US

Tuesday-

· Spanish unemployment data and Services PMI

· Italian services PMI

· Retail sales

· Trade balance- US

Wednesday-

· German factory orders

· French industrial production

· Fed chairwoman testifies- US

Thursday-

· German industrial production

· Minimum bid rate

· ECB press conference

· Unemployment claims- US

Friday-

· Jolts job opening- US

Weekly forecast-

The pair has been trading in a range bound for the last 3 weeks. It is facing strong resistance at higher levels. This week, the key level is located at 1.3906 levels. Until it crosses it, the weakness persists. Last week's low at 1.3774 is the strong support on the downside. On the up side, if the pair crosses the 1.3906 level, it will try to reach 1.40 and 1.41 levels. For the last 2 months the pair has been in a lower highs and lower lows pattern, which prints in a bearish image. On the down side, the level of 1.3812 is strong support; a day close below this, is an initial setup for bear bells and they will ring up to 1.3774, 1.3745 and 1.3673 levels.

Intraday-

As of now, the first trading session in this week the pair opened on a bearish note in Asia. Until the pair trades below the 1.3885 level, don't buy. It opened an open high bearish note. As we recommended before, sell on the rise was prefered strategy, the same strategy we are following this week. On an intraday basis, on the up side, 1.3885 and 1.3906 are the initial resistance levels; above them, the 1.3906 level 1.3934 and 1.3950 are the immediate resistance levels. We expect selling to be heavy in today's evening session or tomorrow, cmp 1.3873.

On the down side, the level of 1.3864 is a minor, 1.3841 and 1.3814 are the major support levels.

Recommendation-

Wait for an up move (final move), sell at higher levels.

So it is clear that the upside is limited and a downside journey will start soon.