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21.06.2019 10:15 AM
Wave analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for June 21. The Bank of England will "go with the flow" in determining monetary policy

EUR / USD

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On Thursday, June 20, trading ended with an increase of 65 basis points for the pair EUR / USD. Thus, the main wave marking remains the same which involves the construction of an upward wave 3 as part of a new upward trend with targets located above the 14th figure. However, the news background is still of great importance in the course formation. In recent weeks, the euro found support from traders who made purchases precisely because of the favorable background. But will this support come next week? If not, will markets continue to buy euros by inertia? An alternative is the markup, at which wave 1 will be interpreted as wave d, and from this maximum, in this case, the construction of the downward e, within which waves 1 and 2 have already been constructed, has already started. This is a backup option.

Purchase goals:

1.1367 - 76.4% Fibonacci

1.1447 - 100.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.1106 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The euro / dollar pair completed the second wave of the upward trend. I recommend buying Eurocurrencies with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1367 and 1.1447, which equates to 76.4% and 100.0% of Fibonacci, since an unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 23.6% indicates the pair's readiness to build rising wave. A down MACD signal may indicate a market transition to an alternative. Purchases, in this case, we close or keep them very carefully.

GBP / USD

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The pair GBP / USD gained about 60 bp in the evening. Bank of England meeting was the last in a series of meetings of the Central Bank. And, perhaps, the greatest amount of uncertainty was associated with it. Unresolved Brexit is fully reflected in the monetary policy of the Bank of England, which simply is uncertain on how it will end, and does not want to change anything in its monetary policy until the moment when it is known exactly which version of Brexit will be implemented. Thus, the Bank of England and Mark Carney did not report anything interesting to the markets yesterday. Wave counting implies the completion of the construction of the downward trend section, but there are doubts about this, since the pound, like the euro, will need a news background that will cause buying the instrument. If this is not the background, and it is very likely in the case of the pound, the pair may then return to a fall, complicating the downward trend. A successful attempt to break through the maximum of the alleged wave d will indicate that the market is ready to continue the increase.

Sales targets:

1.2434 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.2359 - 200.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2767 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern of the pound / dollar instrument has changed and is now suggesting the construction of a new upward trend. At the same time, I recommend waiting for a successful attempt to break through the maximum of wave d, which confirms the willingness of markets to further increase, and build a correctional wave against the first impulse wave and only then buy the instrument.

Chin Zhao,
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