Overview

GBP/JPY is back to 61.8% retracement of 174.86 to 195.86 at 182.88. Sustained trading there is an early sign of larger trend reversal that would bring a deeper fall to the key support level of 174.86. Meanwhile, strong rebound from the current level would send GBP/JPY to a new high above 195.86. An uptrend from 116.83 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is closer to the psychological level of 200 and top there. Meanwhile, consider a bearish divergence condition in the weekly MACD. A break of support at 174.86 will suggest that the trend has reversed earlier than we expected.