The fall of the USD index to three-year lows, the growing risks of accelerating global inflation, the unresolved issue with the disconnection of the US government, and the increased investment demand have all allowed the XAU / USD pair to approach September peaks that are now within reach. Their renewal will open the way to a year and a half maximum. And this scenario seems very likely.

Despite the expected acceleration of the US GDP and the rapid growth of Treasury yields, the dollar was not able to benefit from the "bullish" factors. According to Finance Minister Steve Munchina, the weakness of the US currency helps the economy by improving the state of trade. Similar verbal intervention coupled with the decision of Donald Trump to impose duties on the import of solar batteries and washing machines from Asia, pushed the USD index to the lowest level in the last three years. Investors are seriously concerned about the threat of a trade war between the United States and China and the fall in the rates of the US debt market that will lead to a weakening of the dollar. On the contrary, the growth of profitability does not help it since it is caused by large-scale sales of bonds by central banks within the framework of diversification of foreign exchange reserves.

Gold is sensitive to the dynamics of the "Greenback" as it is quoted in dollars. In addition, the change in the exchange rate of the latter determines the cost of imports in the countries that are the largest consumers of precious metals. Favorable external background contributes to the growth of stocks of specialized exchange funds to the level of 2,250 tons, the maximum since May 2010. The rush demand is associated with the best start of gold since 2010. It hopes for the further weakening of the US dollar.

Dynamics of ETF stocks

Source: Bloomberg.

The precious metal contributed to the achievement of the Bloomberg commodity index of the maximum mark for the last 11 months. Its dynamics is closely correlated with the profitability of US-protected US bonds. The latter are often used as an indicator of inflationary expectations. Gold is traditionally perceived as an instrument of protection against the rapid growth of CPI.

Dynamics of commodity index and yield of bonds

Source: Bloomberg.

Despite the fact that the US government returned to work, its funding was extended only until February 8. Uncertainty, as a rule, strengthens investors' interest in the safe haven assets. According to Standard Chartered, the presence of political risks will allow the quotes of the XAU / USD to update the five-year maximum near the mark of $ 1435 per ounce before the end of this year .

Thus, weak dollar, strong demand for ETF products, diversification of investment portfolios in favor of gold amid potential overclocking of inflation, and the preservation of political risks allow for the expectations of a continuation of the rally of precious metals futures. For any corrections, it makes sense to use it to form long positions.

Technically, the rapid passage of resistance near the target by 88.6% on the pattern of the "Shark" increases the risk of continuing the upward trend of gold in the direction of the next target by 113%. The pattern AB = CD indicates the possibility of growth to the mark of $ 1390 per ounce.

Gold, daily chart