Forex Analysis

Measures quarterly changes in Australian wages. Two versions of the Labor Price Index exist: one which includes bonuses, and one which excludes them. The Labor Price Index is similar to the US Employment Cost Index, an early indicator of wages pressure on inflation. An increase in the index suggests rising inflation pressures because firms tend to eventually pass higher labor costs onto consumers in the form of higher prices.

The headline figure is the quarterly percentage change in the Labor Price Index.

Technical note: The index is constructed by combining 8 separate indexes. The 4 wage price indices are:
• ordinary time hourly rates of pay excluding bonuses index
• ordinary time hourly rates of pay including bonuses index
• total hourly rates of pay excluding bonuses index
• total hourly rates of pay including bonuses index

The 4 non-wage price indices are:
• annual and public holiday leave
• superannuation
• payroll tax
• workers' compensation

The RBNZ is issued regarding the recent decision on interest rates and is required to include all details on how the bank will achieve its inflation targets and how it intends on achieving its recent monetary policy decisions.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the Euro, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where

C = private consumption, I = private investment, G = government expenditure, EX = exports of goods and services, IM = imports of goods and services.

French GDP figures, officially called Quarterly National Accounts, are released quarterly. The headline figures are annualized percentage changes in real and nominal GDP.

A measure of the manufacturing output of the energy sector, factories, and mines. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of UK industrial activity. Industry accounts for about a quarter of the overall GDP. Because industrial production accounts for most of the volatility in the GDP, foreknowledge of trends in manufacturing go a long way in forecasting UK output. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion, healthy for the Pound. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation. In times of inflation the Bank of England may raise interest rates to control growth.

The UK Manufacturing Production index is compiled by the National Statistics Office and measures the level of manufacturing output. It is an important indicator since it measures growth in the country’s manufacturing industry which is a major component of Gross Domestic Product. A low reading is considered bearish for the Sterling.

The difference between imports and exports of goods. Visible Trade differentiates itself from Trade Balance because it does not record intangibles like services, only reporting on physical goods. Because Britain's economy is highly trade driven, Visible Trade data can give critical insight into developments in the economy and into foreign exchange rates.

The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.