Forex Analysis

The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer is a leading indicator which measures overall economic activity and is an excellent indicator of the direction of the Swiss economy. The KOF Economic Barometer is one or two quarters ahead of the GDP growth rate of the previous year and thus enables an initial estimate to be made of how the Swiss economy will perform in the next or in the next two quarters.

The Barometer is ultimately adjusted to take account of seasonal fluctuations and random factors. The Barometer is published monthly.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in Germany.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Germany , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical German household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

The German CPI is significant as one of the primary gauges of inflation. As the largest Eurozone economy, inflation in Germany will contribute significantly to inflation in the Eurozone and the behavior of the European Central Bank. High or rising inflation acts as a signal to the ECB to raise interest rates, an action which will result in the strengthening of the Euro. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in monthly and annualized percentage term.

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reflects changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in a specified period of time. The HICP measures changes of the average price level for goods and services that households consume (the fixed consumer basket). HICP is pure price index. It does not reflect the changes in buying or consumption patterns, brands, and does not reflect the effect of outlet and service provider substitution.

Measures the prices paid by Canadian manufacturers for key raw materials, including resources not produced in Canada. Also known as the Producer Price Index, the RMPI is an early measure of inflation. Although producers may not pass on changes in raw material prices to consumers immediately, the index will record these cost pressures before they reach the end consumer and affect inflation rates. The headline figure is the percentage change in the price index from the previous month and year.

The index includes prices for raw materials like mineral fuels, vegetable products, animal and animal products, wood, ferrous materials, non-ferrous metals, and non-metallic minerals.
 

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. Spending also has direct affect on inflationary pressures.

A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.

On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn.

Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending (when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change) has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption.

The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure
Volatile items like food and energy can fluctuate widely due to seasonal and non-systemic factors. In order to provide a less erratic picture of Personal Consumption, food and energy items are excluded in the PCE core report.

The headline figure of PCE is expressed in percentage change in spending for the quarter.

Note: The Personal Consumption Expenditure figure is reported with the Personal Income and Outlays figure.

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. Spending also has direct affect on inflationary pressures.

A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.

On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn.

Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending (when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change) has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption.

The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Monthly measure of the business conditions based on surveys of purchasing managers across Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Released on the last business day of the reporting month, the report's significance has recently declined, with its only significance being that it precedes the more anticipated ISM report. Subsequently, it is used to predict the ISM report as the Chicago survey retains a high correlation with the broader economic release.

Referring to a benchmark of 50, the report is considered to reflect expansion when printing a reading of 50 or higher. Conversely, a reading of 49 and lower would be indicative of contraction.

Assesses consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power based on hundreds of telephone surveys. Especially valued for its quick turnaround, the University of Michigan Confidence survey is considered one of the foremost indicators of US consumer sentiment. The survey polls a smaller sample of consumers and is less established than the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.

Declining consumer confidence levels usually accompany any fall income or wages and precede drops in consumer spending. A low or falling sentiment value is considered an early indicator of an economic downturn. As a result, investors, retailers and traders alike all watch the figure for insight into the general health of the economy. The University of Michigan figures have recently preceded turning in overall GDP.

The headline figure is calculated by subtracting the percentage of unfavorable replies from the percentage of favorable replies.