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Long-term review

Today, the yen became cheaper against the dollar after The Wall Street Journal reported that the US authorities are discussing the possible abolition of import duties on Chinese goods, although the US Treasury later denied this information.

Exchange Rates 18.01.2019 analysis

According to a number of experts, despite optimistic expectations regarding the resolution of trade disputes between Washington and Beijing, the situation in the future will not be in favor of Greenback.

"We believe that the effect of fiscal stimulation in the United States will gradually come to naught, and investors will eventually lose their desire to buy risky assets, in connection with which the yen will strengthen. We expect the USD / JPY pair to reach 103 over the next 6-12 months," said experts at Citigroup financial conglomerate.

"The Japanese currency is very cheap compared to its long-term fair value, and investments in it, in our opinion, are more profitable than in euros," they added.

Citigroup has revised down its forecast for the dollar index for 2019 from 93.33 to 92.56.

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) adhere to a similar point of view.

"We believe that in the foreseeable future, interest in risky assets will decline due to the fact that the growth rate of the world economy may have reached its maximum," they noted.

According to the BofAML forecast, by the end of the year, the USD / JPY pair will drop to 101.

Performed by V Isakov,
Analytical expert
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