EUR/USD – 4H.
The EUR/USD pair was in the shadow of the pound sterling all day long. There was no important news in the European Union yesterday, but a lot of interesting information came from the UK. Thus, traders made a return to the correction level of 61.8% (1.1318), denoting its intention to resume purchases of euro. Closing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the chances of continued growth in the correction level of 76.4% (1.1368). Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to actively wage trade wars with Mexico and China. If Mexico, according to Trump, managed to negotiate, and new duties will not be imposed on imports from this country, then China, which is the most unyielding of all trade partners of America, came under Trump's new threats on the introduction of additional duties. The US President said that if Chinese representatives do not meet with him at the upcoming G20 summit in Japan, it will mean the introduction of new additional duties for the Chinese side. Thus, President Trump makes it clear that he is interested not only in the deal with China, but also in its early signing, and the delay in the process regards as a refusal to negotiate with America.
The Fibo grid is built on extremums from March 20, 2019, and May 23, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendation:
The EUR/USD pair returned to the correction level of 61.8%. Thus, I recommend selling the euro today with the targets at 1.1277 and 1.1239, with a protective order above the Fibo level of 61.8%, if the rebound from the level of 1.1318 is executed. I recommend buying the pair EUR/USD after closing the quotes above the level of 61.8% for the purpose of a correction level of 1.1368 and a stop-loss order under 1.1318.
GBP/USD – 4H.
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and a return to the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.2661). Pressure on the pound was caused by weak economic reports from the UK. So, the change in GDP in April was negative(-0.3%), and industrial production in the same month lost 2.7%. Thus, the United Kingdom and the United States now seem to be competing, whose economic data will be worse. However, the factor of "Brexit" has not been removed, so the position of the pound remains much worse than the dollar. Today, London will continue to share its official figures. Data on unemployment and average wages will be released. If it turns out that these figures will be lower than forecasts, the pound may continue to fall today. Closing the quotes of the pound/dollar pair under the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the probability of a further decline in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% (1.2437). Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a return to the correction level of 161.8% (1.2673) and the further fall of quotations will depend on the closing below this level. The consolidation of quotations below the Fibo level of 161.8% on June 11 will allow traders to count on the continuation of the fall in the direction of the next correction level of 200.0% (1.2554). On two charts, the pair met serious resistance on its way down. However, given the nature of the news from the UK, traders can seriously expect the pair to continue falling. Especially if the news from this country will again be weak and unimpressive.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of April 25, 2019, and May 3, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair performed a fall towards two important levels of Fibo. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.2780, with the stop-loss order below 1.2673, if the rebound from the level of 76.4%(4-hour chart) is executed. I recommend selling the pair at the close of quotations under the Fibo level of 76.4%(4-hour chart) with a target of 1.2554 and a protective order above the level of 1.2673.
