EUR/USD – 4H.

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair continues the process of falling in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% (1.1107) on the new Fibo grid. Still, bullish divergence is brewing, but already in another indicator – CCI. Bullish divergence will allow traders of the euro/dollar pair to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% (1.1180). The end of the pair quotes from the Fibo level of 100.0% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of growth. Meanwhile, the euro continues to fall without any new information, solely on rumors and expectations. Of course, most of them are related to the upcoming meeting of the ECB, which, according to many experts, will end with a reduction in the deposit rate, which is now equal to -0.4%. Traders also fear the resumption of a quantitative stimulus program of more than 2 trillion euros in late 2019 or early 2020. In fact, whatever steps the ECB takes, these will be steps to soften monetary policy. Mario Draghi, who remains the head of the Central Bank for several months, could not overcome the weak inflation, which has fallen in recent months to 1-1.2%. At the end of his term, Draghi can use several tools to stimulate the economy, but all this will have a negative impact on the euro. It's starting to take its toll.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation below the correction level of 76.4% (1.1180). I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.1107, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.1180. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.1180 and stop-loss order under the level of 1.1107 if it will be rebounded from a correction level of 100.0%, especially in conjunction with bullish divergence.

GBP/USD – 4H.

The GBP/USD pair, after the formation of a bearish divergence, completed the fall to the correctional level of 100.0% (1.2437). The rebound of the pair from this level will allow expecting a reversal in favor of the English currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% (1.2661). Meanwhile, the voting results of members of the Conservative Party of Great Britain became known yesterday. Most of the votes were won by Boris Johnson, who became Prime Minister of the country. On this occasion, the Vice-President of the European Commission Frans Timmermans has already spoken and his words can be interpreted in different ways. He said that the hard Brexit "will be a tragedy for the European Union and for the UK." "We will all suffer from this," Timmermans concluded. Earlier, EU leaders openly stated that they are ready for a tough Brexit and it does not frighten them. Now that the head of the country was a man who strongly supports the speedy Brexit, EU leaders are backing down? Also, Brussels has repeatedly stated that it is not ready for new negotiations on the terms of the agreement. But then what does the EU want? He is not ready for the new negotiations, hard Brexit – does not want. After all, it is clear to everyone that Theresa May's deal is in the past. In general, in the near future, we will witness a new season of the series "Brexit", which promises to be no less interesting than the previous ones. The pound sterling can only hope for minimal losses.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.

GBP/USD – 1H.

As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed two rebounds from the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.2430), which suspended the fall. However, the brewing bearish divergence of the CCI indicator allows us to count on a turn on July 24 in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall in quotations. The consolidation of the pound/dollar exchange rate under the level of 127.2% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% (1.2334).

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 18, 2019, and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair fell to the level of 127.2%. Thus, I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.2334, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.2430, if the closing is performed under the Fibo level of 127.2%. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1,2506, as the rebound from the level of 1.2430 is performed, with the stop-loss order below the level of 127.2% (hourly chart), but with extreme caution.