23.10.202013:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Dollar may face 1.5% medium-term loss in Biden's victory

Exchange Rates 23.10.2020 analysis

Pre-election uncertainty continues to cover the markets. Despite of the final debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the situation did not become clearer. Indeed, Biden leads in polls, but previous experience does not allow investors to be at least a little confident in these estimates. In the last election, Trump's opponent, Hillary Clinton, was the clear favorite. However, the finals results turned out to favor Trump. Later it became known that some preliminary results were incorrect due to the fact that many people did not want to openly show support for Trump because of his eccentric statements. No one can say for sure that the same thing is happening now.

At present, market players seem to avoid making explicit bets on one outcome or another. As a result, this causes moderate pressure on the US markets. We see a downward trend in the stock markets and on the dollar, which has been going down in the last four weeks. These trends may increase immediately before the election, as well as at the time of the first results. An increase in volatility is inevitable.

On Thursday, the dollar index recovered as part of a correction. The reason was the escalated disagreements in the US Congress over the adoption of the fiscal aid package. It is more likely that support measures will not be taken before the election.

However, by Friday, the greenback has lost its achievements and seems to be aiming at new lows.

Exchange Rates 23.10.2020 analysis

The negative trend in the dollar was further strengthened by the publication of macroeconomic statistics for Germany. The country's economy continues to recover steadily after lockdowns. The manufacturing PMI soared in October to a 2.5-year peak of 58.00 against September's 56.4. the services sector looks the weakest. However, despite the decline, the indicator still exceeded market expectations.

Greenback risks losing about 1.5%, or even 3% of its value in the medium-term. This scenario will favor the euro. The main currency pair may rise to new annual highs above 1.20.

Exchange Rates 23.10.2020 analysis

The renewed decline in the USD index on Friday is also associated with speculations about the future state aid to the US economy. Investors' attention is still focused on the negotiation process. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin continue to discuss the amount of the package.

Anna Zotova,
Analytical expert
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