GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes made two attempts to start falling on Monday, but both failed. As a result, the pair returned to the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3176). However, over the past day, three closures were made above this level at once, and none of them led to further growth. Thus, the situation is now difficult with the British. There is not much news from the UK at this time either. A new round of negotiations on a trade agreement has begun in London, however, there is still little chance of reaching an agreement, as Michel Barnier and other participants in the negotiation process have repeatedly stated. It is also unclear how long the negotiations will continue, as the time is gradually approaching December 31, which is just over 1.5 months away. However, you need not only to have time to conclude a deal within this period but also to ratify it in the European Parliament and the British Parliament. In general, I believe that there is almost no chance to make it. It is all the more strange to see the growth of the British at this time. Yesterday, even the European performed a fall, and the pound, which has more reasons to fall, showed amazing resilience. Traders may still believe in reaching an agreement between London and Brussels, however, these are just hopes and dreams. The reality can be much harsher. Boris Johnson also hopes for an agreement with the European Union, an agreement with America.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3191). The rebound of quotes from this Fibo level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3010). The looming bearish divergence in the CCI indicator increases the probability of quotes rebounding from the level of 23.6%. Fixing the pair's rate above the level of 23.6% will increase the chances of further growth towards the next Fibo level of 0.0% (1.3481).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes have consolidated above the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3016), which now allows us to expect further growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed under the lower downward trend line, thus, a false breakout of this line followed earlier. However, in recent weeks, the pair has made new attempts to gain a foothold over both trend lines.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Monday, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, gave a speech in the UK, however, he did not tell traders anything important or interesting.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK - change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits (07:00 GMT).
UK - unemployment rate (07:00 GMT).
UK - change in average earnings (07:00 GMT).
On November 10, the news calendar contains a fairly important report on unemployment in the UK. However, in general, traders are not paying much attention to economic reports right now.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on the British pound showed that the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became even more "bearish" during the reporting week. Speculators continued to get rid of long contracts, closing a total of 3,281 units. At the same time, they slightly increased the number of short contracts, opening 1,146. Thus, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category has become more "bearish". However, due to the US presidential election, the British pound rose strongly last week. This data was not included in the latest COT report, so I can't conclude how the mood of major traders changed after November 2. You need to wait for the next COT report and analyze it. According to the latest report, I can say that the chances of a fall in the British dollar are very high now.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the GBP/USD pair with targets of 1.3099 and 1.3010, if the rebound from the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.3191) on the 4-hour chart is performed, especially with the formation of a "bearish" divergence. I recommend buying the British dollar with a target of 1.3264 if the close above the level of 1.3191 is completed.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - large market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
