On Friday, the pair tested the upper fractal 1.1851 (daily candle from 09/08/2021), then went down to 1.1808 - the 21-day EMA (black thin line), and closed the daily candle at 1.1809. Today, the downward movement may continue. News is expected at 13:30 UTC (euro).

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may continue to move down from the level of 1.1809 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.1786 - the 50.0% retracement level (red dotted line). When testing this level, an upward pullback may form with the target at 1.1811 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, continued upward movement is expected.

Fig. 1 (Daily chart)

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move down from the level of 1.1809 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target at 1.1786 - the 50.0% retracement level (red dotted line). When testing this level, an upward pullback may form with the target at 1.1811 - the historical resistance level (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this level, continued upward movement is expected.

Alternative scenario: the price may continue to move down from the level of 1.1809 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target at 1.1786 - the 50.0% retracement level (red dashed line). When testing this level, the price may continue to move down with the target of 1.1757 - the 61.8% retracement level (red dashed line), where an upward pullback is expected.