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Collapse of US economy to be short-lived
10-04-2020 09:01
Collapse of US economy to be short-lived
Collapse of US economy to be short-lived

The global spread of the coronavirus has had a profound impact on the US economy. In a relatively short time, the world’s largest economy was paralized and dependent on the further dynamics of COVID-19. According to Moody's, the largest analytical agency, the US economic activity slowed down by 29% amid the coronavirus pandemic. The analysts emphasize that it can be possible to give a more accurate assessment of the extent of the COVID-19 influence on the American economy only in a couple of years. The experts have noticed an unprecedented suspension of trade in the country. However, they have no idea how this situation can impact on the economy in the future. According to Moody's, businesses are temporarily closed in 41 US states. The restrictions introduced by the US government affected the most densely populated regions of the country. 80% of all counties are under lockdown. They account for 96% of production in the country. However, these economic circumstances are not as pessimistic as they seem. Analysts in Moody’s believe that the 29% decline in production is short-lived. The experts suggest that the difficulties caused by the coronavirus will not affect the entire second quarter of 2020. Moreover, they expect economic activity in the majority of US regions to begin to recover by summer. According to Moody’s forecast, US GDP can reach 30% year-on-year in the second quarter. The analysts are concerned that the current situation is often compared to the Great Depression. Back then, the manufacturing output in the country plummeted by 26% on a yearly basis. Later, during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, US manufacturing decreased only by 4%. However, many economists find it inappropriate to draw an analogy between past economic shocks and the current collapse. The experts are convinced that this crisis is similar by its impact to the consequences of the devastating earthquakes or the September 11 attacks. Moody’s has presented the following analysis. The US economy lost $111 billion after the terrorist attacks. Meanwhile, the production in the country plunged by $350 billion after the restrictions introduced to combat the spread of COVID-19.The analysts suggest that suspension of production in the US will have an adverse impact on the consumer demand and unemployment in the country. The number of jobless claims in the US has already skyrocketed. For two weeks ended on March 28, jobless claims increased by 10 million. The level of unemployment in the country jumped to 4.4% versus 3.5% in February. The number of jobs in the US decreased by 710 thousand for the first time since 2010. Similar economic collapse was recorded ten years ago, Moody’s summarized.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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