On Monday, bitcoin continued its steep decline. At the time of writing this article, the cryptocurrency's price has already lost $4,000, and the day is not over yet. Meanwhile, the bitcoin quotes descended to the support level of $43,852, from which previously it bounced at least twice. In addition, the 24-hour time frame shows that the trendline broke through the upper border of the sideways expanding channel three times. The channel is no longer relevant but its lines are still coming in handy. Besides, bitcoin hit another important level of $43,056, which is 38.2% Fibonacci. As a result, the sellers' task for today will be to break through all three supports. If successful, bitcoin decline may continue.
The decline in the bitcoin quotations has been expected for a long time. The cryptocurrency rose to $52,000 unreasonably. Therefore, the fall of the price to $30,000 is likely to happen. Two factors may facilitate this scenario. The first one is recent amendments to the US tax code according to which the data on all transactions over $10,000 in cryptocurrency will have to be submitted to the IRS. The second factor is the Fed's possible statement about the QE taper on Wednesday. The first factor will reduce investor and trader appetite for bitcoin. Given that many of the world's central banks have repeatedly drawn attention to the use of bitcoin for various criminal and illegal transactions, a certain share of its holders may refuse any possible interaction with the IRS.
The US government is intending to introduce taxation of transactions with cryptocurrencies, which may make investments in digital assets less attractive. However, the second factor means that there will be much less money poured into the US economy from nowhere. For more than a year, the market showed a bullish trend because the Fed regularly injected billions of dollars into the economy. If the Fed decides to reduce the flows, it will also affect bitcoin investment. The cryptocurrency's price may fall due to a decrease in demand. This process may have already started. The latest US dollar rally is seen to be unreasonable. It began last Thursday. Therefore, markets may have already started to calculate the possible outcome of the Fed meeting.
Nowadays, there is a trend towards stricter cryptocurrency laws in the world. Many central banks argue that cryptocurrency is not money. They are actively developing their own digital currencies, which they state are backed by the Central Bank itself. Therefore, governments may continue tightening legislation on cryptocurrencies, seeing them as a threat to financial stability and as an uncontrolled means of exchange, payment, and investment. Additionally, they are likely to increase tax pressure to generate revenue for the budget from a rapidly growing and evolving industry. Thus, it may become increasingly difficult for bitcoin to grow in value over time.
The 24-hour time frame shows that bitcoin resumed the correction but now it needs to break through the level of $43,852 and the upper channel line for the downward trend to continue. Only in this case, the cryptocurrency may be sold with a target of $40,000. Should a third bounce from the $43,852 level occur, then buying bitcoin with a target of $48,000 seems to be a winning strategy.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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