15.10.202108:19 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD hot forecast on October 15, 2021

Producer prices in the United States declined after the inflation data was released.Their growth rate accelerated from 8.3% to 8.6%. It was slightly higher than the forecast of 8.5%. Concerning the producer price index as a leading indicator for inflation, its rise means that the rate of consumer price growth will definitely not slow down at least in the near term. On the contrary, inflation may increase. Moreover, the Federal Reserve System will definitely announce the beginning of its quantitative easing program tapering in November. Actually, it was highly probable after the inflation data was released. However, market participants hoped that the decision would be postponed at least till December.

The producer price index was significant, and the dollar stopped weakening. However, the market is obviously inclined to further dollar weakening. Besides, the unemployment claims data released much better than expected, resulting in the inevitability of the Fed's monetary policy tightening. Consequently, the number of initial claims went down by 36,000 while it was forecasted 14,000. The number of repeated claims, which was expected to reduce by 78,000, dropped by 134,000. Besides, the dollar was expected to surge. However, it did not occur. In fact, only temporary weakening of the dollar is mentioned.

Producer Price Index (United States):

Exchange Rates 15.10.2021 analysis

However, the dollar will continue to weaken today. Retail sales, which are due to slow from 15.1% to 9.0% are the reason. We still mention year-on-year rising sales, while month-to-month sales may be down 0.1%. It is not relevant, though a decline is indicated concerning high inflation. Consequently, it is a typical situation with rising prices and falling consumer activity. This combination has always been considered extremely negative. Besides, it is not a stimulus to the dollar strengthening.

Retail Sales (United States):

Exchange Rates 15.10.2021 analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair reached the local maximum of September 23 during the corrective movement. This resulted in the reduction in the volume of long positions and caused a rebound to the upper boundary of the previously passed flat.

Technical instrument RSI in the four-hour period reached the overbought level of 70, due to the corrective movement. This may indicate a price reversal signal in the future.

In terms of Fibonacci lines, the area of the local high of September 23 coincides with the level of 38.2. This increases the pressure on long positions.

Despite the corrective move, the market still maintains the downward cycle from early June.

Expectations and prospects:

It can be assumed that the area of local high at 1.3730/1.3750 together with Fibo level of 38.2 will continue to put pressure on buyers. This may lead to a slowdown and possibly the completion of the corrective move.

Complex indicator analysis has a signal to sell relative to the one-minute interval due to the price rebound. Indicators of technical tools on the intraday period are focused on the correction, signaling a buy.

Exchange Rates 15.10.2021 analysis

*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.

Dean Leo,
Esperto analitico di InstaForex
© 2007-2022
Approfittati subito dei consigli degli analisti
Deposita i fondi sul conto di trading
Apri un conto di trading

Le recensioni analitiche di InstaForex ti renderanno pienamente consapevole delle tendenze del mercato! Essendo un cliente InstaForex, ti viene fornito un gran numero di servizi gratuiti per il trading efficiente.

Breaking forecast for GBP/USD on January 19
The pound sterling kept declining following the UK employment report. Today, traders are waiting for the release of inflation data, which is unlikely to change the situation.
Autore: Dean Leo
01:37 2022-01-19 UTC--5
Red-hot forecast for GBP/USD on January 18, 2022
The pound sterling is so much overbought that even the bank holiday in the US did not hinder its decline, albeit a minor one. Today, the UK is due to release data on the labor market.
Autore: Dean Leo
01:27 2022-01-18 UTC--5
Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 01/17/2022
The EURUSD currency pair, after an intensive upward movement, switched to correction mode, returning the quote to the previously passed value of 1.1400. Based on the price behavior, there is an interaction with the level of 1.1400, where market participants consider it as support.
Autore: Dean Leo
03:21 2022-01-17 UTC--5
Mostra di più
In questo momento non potete parlare al telefono?
Ponete la vostra domanda nella chat.