To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
The euro continues to stand in one place, and volatility has decreased even more compared to yesterday. Most likely, no one wants to take risks before tomorrow's important report on the US labor market, based on which the Federal Reserve System will make a decision on monetary policy. Let's look at the 5-minute chart. Before the 1.1305 level test, it was not enough quite a bit in the first half of the day, so it was not possible to get a good entry point into long positions from there. We also did not reach the nearest resistance level. From a technical point of view, nothing has changed.
Today, in the afternoon, the market may show a slightly more cheerful dynamics, as a report on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be released. However, the speeches of representatives of the Federal Reserve System in the person of Rafael Bostic and Mary Daly will attract more attention. If they support the hawkish statements made by Jerome Powell on Tuesday, then the demand for the US dollar may strengthen. Bulls will continue to defend the nearest support of 1.1305, as the further upward correction of the pair depends on it. Only the formation of a false breakdown there, together with bad statistics on the American labor market, will lead to the formation of the first entry point. The calculation will be on the continuation of the pair's growth and the breakthrough of the 1.1355 resistance formed by the results of yesterday. A breakout and a top-down test of 1.1355, by analogy with what I analyzed above relative to the level of 1.1340, will give an excellent entry point into the market with the prospect of updating the maximum of 1.1395 and reaching 1.1442. A more distant goal will be 1.1514, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of a decline in EUR/USD to 1.1305 and strong fundamental statistics for the United States, it is best not to rush with purchases. I advise you to wait for the next fall of the pair and the formation of a false breakdown at the intermediate support of 1.1274, but you can open long positions on EUR/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1238, which acts as the lower boundary of a wider side channel. The calculation will be for a correction of 15-20 points within a day.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:
Sellers failed to reach even the nearest support of 1.1305, which indicates the preservation of market equilibrium before tomorrow's important data. The main task of the bears for today remains the protection of the 1.1355 range. The formation of a false breakdown there, together with strong US data, will give an excellent entry point into short positions in the hope of resuming the bearish momentum observed this Tuesday after the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The statements of the Fed representatives may also strengthen the demand for the US dollar. Any news about another rapid spread of coronavirus in the eurozone will increase pressure on the euro. An equally important task for EUR/USD sellers is to regain control over the support of 1.1305, which they failed to do in the first half of the day. Its breakdown and a bottom-up test will lead to the formation of a signal to open short positions with the prospect of a decline to the area of 1.1274. A more distant goal will be the support of 1.1238, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the euro rises and bears are inactive at 1.1355, it is better to wait for sales. The optimal scenario will be short positions when forming a false breakdown in the area of 1.1395. It is possible to open short positions immediately for a rebound from the highs: 1.1442 and 1.1514 with the aim of a downward correction of 15-20 points.
The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for November 23 recorded an increase in both short and long positions. However, there are still more of the former, which led to an increase in the negative delta. Data on manufacturing activity in the eurozone countries provided significant support to the euro last week, but pressure on risky assets remained. A strong report on US GDP and the minutes of the Federal Reserve System from its last meeting supported the dollar, as many traders expect more active changes in monetary policy in December this year. However, all this can be prevented by a new strain of the Omicron coronavirus, the spread of which is actively observed in the eurozone and African countries. In the USA, this strain has not yet been registered, but it's only a matter of time. Euro buyers can only wait for hawkish statements from European politicians, which were actively voiced last week, which also supported the euro. The latest November COT report indicated that long non-profit positions rose from the level of 198,181 to the level of 204,214, while short non-profit positions also jumped from the level of 202,007 to the level of 220,666. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position increased to -16,452 against -3,826. The weekly closing price dropped to 1.1241 against 1.1367.
Signals of indicators:
Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
A breakthrough of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1305 will lead to a larger drop in the euro. A breakthrough of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1330 will lead to the growth of the pair.
Description of indicators
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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