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Honestly, contemplating the course of yesterday's bidding was still tormenting as it was more like observing a predatory beast that made for a decisive jump on its prey. And now, the nerves are already tense to the limit, sweat floods my eyes, but at the most crucial moment, something went wrong as there were accumulation of muscles and strength overshot for about a kilometer. Yes, in the wrong direction. Of course, if you look at the horizontal line that the quotes depicted yesterday, the reaction to the content of the protocol text looks impressive - at least some movement. Although overall, the picture has not changed much and this is not surprising in many ways since investors only received confirmation of the thoughts that had been visited since the very end of the Fed meeting. At least until the end of this year, they will no longer take any steps to change the parameters of the monetary policy. Most importantly, Jerome Powell and colleagues completely ignore the curses and threats from Donald Trump, who demands an immediate reduction in the refinancing rate by 1.00%, and do not intend to soften the parameters of his monetary policy. Not only was the decision to lower the refinancing rate unanimous but there was also a suggestion to raise it altogether. The name of the new enemy, Donald Trump, who dared to express such seditious thoughts, is Neil Kashkari. In other words, The Federal Reserve does not intend to follow the fears and fears, which for the most part are nurtured by various media, and plan to make informed and careful decisions. Most importantly, the likelihood of another decrease in the refinancing rate is close to zero, at least during the current year. In any case, the content of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations favors precisely the strengthening of the dollar, albeit in the medium term. After all, the European Central Bank is clearly busy looking for ways to mitigate its already extremely soft monetary policy.

Exchange Rates 22.08.2019 analysis

As often happens, one particular event overshadows the macroeconomic statistics, which are taken into account when deciding on the parameters of monetary policy. After all, home sales in the secondary market of the United States grew by 2.5%, which of course, can be called a kind of recovery after a decline of 1.3%. Well, absolutely everyone ignored the data on net borrowing from the UK public sector, which fell by 2.0 billion pounds after an increase of 5.7 billion pounds.

The dynamics of home sales in the secondary market of the United States:

Exchange Rates 22.08.2019 analysis

Today, market participants will be incredibly curious to look at preliminary data on business activity indices, first in Europe and then in the United States. True, the forecasts on them are extremely disappointing, especially if we talk about the Old World. Thus, the index of business activity in the services sector should decrease from 53.2 to 53.0. But the worst thing is that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector may decline from 46.5 to 46.2. The index is already below 50.0 points, which indicates an increase in the risks of a recession. But the horror of the situation is that this index itself has been decreasing since the fall of 2017, only occasionally giving signs of growth, and even then, it is extremely uncertain. Of course, the composite business activity index should fall from 51.5 to 51.2. Therefore, the overall picture is extremely disappointing and the European Central Bank really needs to think about how to rectify the situation and the European Central Bank really needs to think about how to rectify the situation.

The dynamics of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone:

Exchange Rates 22.08.2019 analysis

However, the forecasts for American statistics are slightly better. Of course, the index of business activity in the services sector may fall from 53.0 to 52.8, but the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector should rise from 50.4 to 50.5. Although this does not help the composite business activity index (which is expected to decrease from 52.6 to 51.7), at least there is growth on some parameters. And of course, all indices are above the 50.0 points, which means there is little economic growth without any particular risks of a recession. Let's agree that this distinguishes the United States from Europe. In addition, it is expected to reduce the total number of applications for unemployment benefits by 30 thousand. In particular, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits should decrease by 4 thousand, and the number of repeated by another 26 thousand.

The dynamics of the business activity index in the manufacturing sector of the United States:

Exchange Rates 22.08.2019 analysis

The Euro/Dollar currency pair formed a temporary flat within the boundaries of 1.1066/1.1110, sequentially working out each side. It is likely to assume that this kind of accumulation is temporary in nature and it is worth paying attention to the lower border of 1.1066. In case of breakdown, we will go towards 1.1040-1.1020.

Exchange Rates 22.08.2019 analysis

The pound/dollar currency pair found a resistance point once again in the face of the level of 1.2150, forming as a fact of working it off. It is likely to assume that the downward mood will continue with the first descent to 1.2080.

Exchange Rates 22.08.2019 analysis

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Uitgevoerd door Mark Bom,
Analytische expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019
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