The British pound fell by 38 points yesterday, at the peak of decline, almost reaching the first target at the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.2844. After overcoming yesterday's low, the price will move to the second target of 1.2758 – to the Fibonacci level of 123.6%. Then 138.2% at the price of 1.2665. This can be prevented by the impeding convergence of Marlin on the daily scale. If an active downward movement takes place today, the convergence will not form, and the signal line of the oscillator will continue to decline.
In this situation, it is worth tracking the pound's reaction to the release of today's British business activity data for February. Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall from 50.0 to 49.7, Services PMI is projected at 53.4 points from 53.9 earlier. The fall of the pound on negative data is highly likely to cancel out the growing (and alternative) scenario with technical convergence.
On the four-hour chart, it is noticeable how the price overcame the range on February 2 with effort and struggle. This is also a sign of the intention of the bears to consolidate success.
*Prezentowana analiza rynku ma charakter informacyjny i nie jest przewodnikiem po transakcji.
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