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Long-term review

EUR/JPY has been very bullish in nature after the break above the 125.80 resistance level last week. Due to the hawkish comment of the ECB President Draghi on his last speech due to global economic boom, EUR is currently quite powerful against JPY. JPY has been suffering a lot recently due to bad economic data which did affected the gain of the JPY against all other currencies in the market. Today JPY Monetary Base report was published with a worse figure at 17.0% which previously was at 19.4% and today it was expected to be at 19.2% but Bank of Japan Core CPI report did somehow met the expectation today at 0.3% which previously was at 0.2%. On the EUR side, today Spanish Unemployment Change was negative at -98.3k from the previous value of -111.9k which was expected to increase to -120.3k. Although the report is considered as a lagging indicator of the economy but the number of unemployed people is an important signal of the economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions, so as a result the negative result of the report is expected to make EUR much weaker in the coming days. Along with it, today EUR PPI report was also published which also showed negative result at -0.4% which was expected to be at -0.2% from the previous value of 0.0%. Today EUR is quite weaker in comparison to JPY by considering the economic reports and as one of the leading economic indicator of EUR has come out negative, JPY is expected to gain currently against EUR on the short-term basis.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has shown a good amount of impulsive bullish movement after breaking above the 125.80 resistance level and way above the dynamic level of 20 EMA which signals upcoming retracement in this pair. Currently, the price is expected to move down to 20 EMA or support level of 125.80 before price proceeds its move further upward with a target towards 132.20 resistance level. The bullish bias will continue further until price breaks below 125.80 with a daily close.

Exchange Rates 04.07.2017 analysis

*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.

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