03.09.202012:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Problems Began to Manifest Themselves: Oil Switched to the Negative Dynamics

Exchange Rates 03.09.2020 analysis

There is a lull in the oil market today. The cost of raw materials remain without significant changes and also shows multi-directional dynamics. Recall that yesterday's trading session ended in a negative zone. Even positive statistics on the level of black gold reserves in the United States of America, which was published yesterday, could not support the market.

According to official data from the US Department of Energy, the level of crude oil reserves in the US decreased by 9.4 million barrels at the end of last week, which came to the end of August 28. The reduction was so significant that it exceeded all previous forecasts. Recall that experts claimed that the reserves will be reduced by 1.2 million barrels.

Nevertheless, analysts were slightly surprised and pleased with such a significant drop in crude oil reserves as well as a reduction in production. This was quite predictable against the background of adverse weather conditions and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.

The price of future contracts for Brent crude oil-- for delivery in November-- this morning on the trading floor in London shows a reduction. So far, it has made 0.27%, or 0.12 dollars, which moved the price to the limits of 44.31 dollars per barrel but the downwards movement may well continue all day. Yesterday's trading session also ended in the red zone: the drop in value was significant and amounted to 2.5%, or 1.15 dollars.

The price of futures contracts for WTI crude oil-- for October delivery-- on the electronic trading platform in new York is also falling today, but so far only slightly. The drop was 0.14%, or $ 0.06, and the current price level is $ 41.45 per barrel. Wednesday's trading session ended with a global decline of 2.9%, or $ 1.25, which was the lowest value in almost a month.

As for the production of black gold in the United States of America, according to statistics, it became less over the past week by 1.1 million barrels per day and reached 9.7 million barrels per day. This is also due to the action of hurricane Laura which led to a temporary shutdown of oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. Because of this, we should not hope that this decline will continue. Weather conditions have improved and oil production facilities are starting to work again, which means that next week's statistics may reflect a reverse increase in the level of production in the country. The only question is how serious the increase will be.

The price level in the oil market will change under the influence of several factors. The first of them is the statistics on the unemployment rate in the United States for the last month of summer. All changes in this direction will be announced tomorrow but in the meantime, the press has received data on the number of jobs in the private sector of the country. The indicator increased by 428 thousand units, although it was expected to be much higher.

The second growth factor in the oil market is the release of a vaccine against Covid-19. This may happen by the end of this year. Then oil will be more resistant to external influences and will rapidly go up.

The third limiting factor for crude oil is related to Iraq. The latter, as it turns out, will not be able to cope with its obligations to reduce oil production in accordance with the previously signed agreement with OPEC. Just yesterday, the government of the country announced that it will not be possible to reach the required level of production in the period from August to September. It will take at least two more months to fulfill all the obligations. Iraq is left with no choice but to come with the appeal to the Cabinet of Ministers of OPEC to extend the term of the contract. Nevertheless, market participants understand that OPEC will not be too happy about this prospect.

Maria Shablon,
Odborný analytik spoločnosti InstaForex
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