Mapa webu
العربية Български 中文 Čeština English Français Deutsch हिन्दी Bahasa Indonesia Italiano Bahasa Malay اردو Polski Português Română Русский Srpski Slovenský Español ไทย Nederlands Українська Vietnamese বাংলা Ўзбекча O'zbekcha Қазақша

Klientská oblast InstaForex

  • Osobní nastavení
  • Přístup ke všem službám InstaForexu
  • Podrobné statistiky a zprávy o obchodech
  • Úplný přehled finančních transakcí
  • Systém správy více účtů
  • Maximální ochrana dat

Partnerská oblast InstaForex

  • Úplné informae o klientech a provizích
  • Grafická statstika účtů a prokliků
  • Nástroje pro ebmastery
  • Hotová webovářešení a široká škála bannerů
  • Vysoká úroveňochrany údajů
  • Zprávy společosti, RSS kanály a forex informace
Zaregistrovat účet
Partnerský program
cabinet icon

Další Lamborghini od InstaForexu!Možná to budete vy, kdo si převezme klíče!

Stačí si vložit do svého účtu nejméně 1000 dolarů!

Získejte nejlepší obchodní podmínky a atraktivní bonusové nabídky! Již jsme rozdali 6 legendárních sportovních vozů! Ale to nás nezastaví! Další Lamborghini Huracan nejnovější generace můžete mít vy!

InstaForex - investujte do svých vítězství!

Okamžité otevření účtu

Získejte dopis s návodem
toolbar icon

Platforma pro obchodování

Pro mobilní zařízení

Pro obchodování přes prohlížeč

Long-term review

When in the late 1990s Alan Greenspan unexpectedly reduced the Federal funds rate in response to the increased international risks, rather than raising it to control inflation, this eventually led to overheating and recession. Janet Yellen also postponed the tightening of monetary policy in 2016 due to a fire in China's markets and Brexit's unexpected support at a referendum in Britain. Currently, Jerome Powell and Mario Draghi are ready to turn a blind eye to the slowdown of the US and European economies in the first quarter. The difference is that the US is at the final stage of the economic cycle, and the eurozone is still far from it.

Dynamics of US inflation and Fed rates

Exchange Rates 09.06.2018 analysis

Less than six months, the theme of convergence in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB returned to the markets.Chief economist Peter Praet said that the Governing Council will consider the completion of QE in 2018 at the June meeting. The markets expected this to happen in July. The shift in timing for the earlier period prompted investors to recall the events of the second half of 2017. Then the most rapid growth of European GDP, at least for 10 years, the victory of Emmanuel Macron over eurosceptics in France and rumors about the ECB's refusal from the quantitative easing program became the guiding stars of the bulls on EUR/USD.

Dynamics of EUR/USD and European GDP

Exchange Rates 09.06.2018 analysis

Theoretically, the Italian political crisis and the sluggish start of the Eurozone in 2018 could discourage the European Central Bank's desire to normalize monetary policy. But the regulator wrote off the slowdown in GDP for bad weather, strikes and an epidemic of flu. It sincerely believes that during the rest of the year the economy will rise from its knees. And these conditions of finding the euro in the comfort zone (below $1.2) allows the representatives of the Governing Council to safely talk about the completion of QE. Yes, there is Italy, but does anyone seriously believe that this republic will leave the currency block?

Is it possible to consider the completion of the quantitative easing program in the eurozone and the 4 rate increases for federal funds in the New Equivalent Events? If the stages of the business cycle were the same, then a negative answer would follow. And since the dollar since 2013 began to pawn in quotes associated with the currency pairs normalization factor. In general, the monetary tightening is already priced in. But the rejection of the European QE and the forthcoming increase in the deposit rate and refinancing rates in 2019 are not yet fully realized. Hence the desire of investors to jump into the last car of the EUR/USD train going upward. Moreover, 35 out of 60 Reuters experts believe that the USD index rally will not last longer than three months. Ten of them think it will last for a month.

Technically, the formation of the pin bar cooled the offensive rise of the "bulls" in the euro. "Bears" went into a counterattack in order to restore the downward short-term trend. However, to begin with, they need to dissuade buyers from the zone 1.162-1.17, that their ideas are not worth anything.

EUR/USD, daily chart

Exchange Rates 09.06.2018 analysis

*Účelem zde zveřejněné analýzy trhu je zvýšení vašeho povědomí, nikoli dávání pokynů k obchodování.

Napsal Marek Petkovich,
Analytický expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019
Využijte doporučení analytiků právě teď
Doplnit obchodní účet
Získejte bonus od společnosti InstaForex

Díky analytickým přehledům společnosti InstaForex získáte plné povědomi o tržních trendech! Jako zákazníkovi společnosti InstaForex je Vám k dispozici velký počet bezplatných služeb umožňujících efektivní obchodování.