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10.07.201813:02 Trading plan for GBP / USD as of July 10, 2013

Long-term review

Just nine months before Britain's final withdrawal from the European Union, the British began to muddy the water again. The government of Theresa May began a full-scale crisis, as some members of her cabinet strongly opposed the agreement reached with Europe, which they regarded as excessively mild and contrary to the will of the people expressed during the referendum. Not only that the Minister for Brexit Affairs resigned, the Foreign Minister also slammed the door loudly. On the eve of such a large-scale event as the finalization of the divorce between Britain and the European Union, there was not enough for the complete happiness of the political crisis alone. Naturally, this led to a panic sale of the pound, as it is better to fix, even with a loss.

It's ridiculous, but the dollar already had a reason for growth due to data on consumer lending, reviewing first the previous values from 9.3 billion dollars to 10.3 billion dollars. Also instead of the expected 12.5 billion dollars in May, Americans collected as much as $ 24.6 billion in consumer loans. Given that the number of working days in May, and on the weekend, American banks do not work in principle. every day the Americans recruited consumer credit loans of more than $ 1 billion so that you can easily dismiss any talk about the risk of a decline of consumer activity in the US.

However, the pound may have an occasion or at least stop falling for today. Thus, preliminary GDP data for the second quarter may show that the United Kingdom maintains current economic growth rates, which is quite good against the background of the political crisis that has risen. Also, the growth rate of industrial production should accelerate from 1.8% to 1.9%.

Yes, and the very dollar today will have to cool down a bit, along with the revision of previous results on consumer lending. we revised the forecasts for the number of open vacancies. Yesterday, it was expected that the number of open vacancies should grow, which mitigated the negative effect caused by the latest report from the US Department of Labor. Now, they are expected to reduce from 6,698 to 6,583 thousand. In other words, the increased army of free labor is no longer offered so many free jobs. Naturally, this threatens an even greater deterioration of the situation in the labor market.

The GBP/USD currency pair fell below the level of 1.3200 yesterday, but soon after, it quickly rolled back higher and finished the day in the region of 1.3250. Now, the quotation shows a variable bearish interest, but still feeling oversold, where you can expect a further pullback towards the level of 1.3300.

Exchange Rates 10.07.2018 analysis

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Mark Bom
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