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31.03.202013:58 EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The confrontation between Donald Trump and representatives of the healthcare sector. The confrontation of good with evil

Exchange Rates 31.03.2020 analysis

Unfortunately, the main and almost the only topic for discussion now remains the "coronavirus" epidemic in the world. Scientists have recently been able to identify several patterns that can help in the fight against the virus. For example, it turned out that the mortality rate in countries where people are vaccinated against tuberculosis in childhood (Russia, Belarus, Ukraine) is much lower than in countries where they are not vaccinated (Spain, Italy). Perhaps this will somehow help in the fight against the virus, if not now, then at least in the future.

In the meantime, the infection of the planet is in full swing. More than 800,000 cases and almost 39,000 deaths have been officially recorded worldwide. But the main attention of traders is focused on the United States and what is happening in this country. There are several explanations for this. At first, during the period when the dollar was actively growing against the euro and the pound, many analysts believed that the US currency is the safest during the next crisis in the eyes of traders and investors. Whether this is true or not, we will not find out now. The markets believed it, and the dollar rose. However, as it turned out a little later, when the US government and the Fed began to show signs of serious unrest due to a possible recession and depression of the economy, market participants stopped mindlessly buying the US currency, believing that the whole world would collapse, but the US economy would stand, and the dollar would preserve the value of their assets and savings. It turned out that the American economy, as one of the largest in the world, requires the same large injections and stimulus packages. It turned out that the stronger and larger the economy, the more difficult it is to keep it afloat and the lower it can potentially fall. For example, the current state of the US stock market is comparable to 2016, that is, the "pre-Trump era". The President of the United States has always taken the main credit for the country's economic growth and the growth of the stock market. However, now, in the run-up to the election in November this year, there are few trump cards in Trump's hands. After all, voters need to provide concrete achievements for 4 years of their rule. It is clear that the epidemic is a force majeure situation. But any electorate is interested in achievements, victories, not excuses and reasons why they failed to achieve their goals. Thus, the US President is beginning to get nervous about a possible defeat in the elections in November, although his political ratings have been rising recently, according to research by various agencies and periodicals.

So far, Donald Trump has decided to extend the quarantine measures in America, but at the same time not to tighten them, for example, in the state of New York, which is the most affected by the epidemic and at the same time brings the largest GDP to the General Treasury of the United States. However, sooner or later, the issue of ending the quarantine will be put on the agenda again. The longer the economy stands because of the quarantine, the more it will decline. We all saw how many new applications for unemployment benefits were in the States last week. And it's only one week. What can we expect from the economy of a country that at one point lost about 3 million workers? Three million Americans lost (temporarily or permanently) jobs, stopped making profits, and stopped fueling GDP. And this is just the beginning. According to many virologists, microbiologists and epidemiologists, there is no reason to expect the end of the epidemic in a week or two. Even to expect a reduction in the growth rate of its distribution, no. However, some politicians also support doctors. For example, Vice President Mike Pence, who is leading the fight against the "coronavirus", believes that, according to some models, the pandemic may last 18 months or longer and consist of several waves. Doctors support this view and believe that the need for social distance is extremely great. However, Donald Trump and many of his supporters believe that the quarantine and its consequences will have irreversible consequences for the economy and, accordingly, will cause even more damage to Americans than the "coronavirus" outbreak itself. Thus, we are confident that in the near future the issue of ending quarantine measures will again arise in the States, and the US President will once again try to restart the economy to the detriment of the health of the American nation. But will this move harm his political future? How many Americans at risk of health will agree to voluntarily go to work?

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Viele Grüße,
Analytiker: Paolo Greco
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