Although the current macroeconomic environment is in favor of a gold rally, the yellow metal remains trading at $ 1,900 per ounce, mainly because gold's movement continues to be driven by the US dollar.
Suki Cooper, an analyst from Standard Chartered, said: "Gold prices continue to fluctuate around US $ 1,900 per ounce and remain driven by macro drivers, mainly the US dollar, rather than real rates. We assume that this will continue until the US presidential elections."
It seems the growth prospects of gold will inevitably turn down if Democrat candidate, Joe Biden, wins the election.
"Since polls continue to point to Biden's victory, gold rally has stalled," Cooper added.
Nonetheless, most of the driving forces point to a rise in gold prices next year, with the Standard Chartered forecasting a quote of $ 2,000 an ounce by the end of the year, and $ 2,100 an ounce in the first quarter of 2021.
"Negative rates, together with the expectations of a weaker US dollar due to another stimulus package, continue to create a favorable background for gold. However, the best position involves caution before the elections,"
The market is currently weak ahead of the US elections. In addition to that, the third quarter is expected to be the weakest quarter for central bank gold purchases in 10 years.
"The physical market usually provides a buffer for losses when investment contraction accelerates, such as in 2013. The lack of strong physical demand could increase market volatility in the run-up to elections," Cooper said. "The purchases of the Central Bank also slowed down. August was the first month of net sales since December 2018, and preliminary data for September suggests that Q3 2020 could be the first quarter of CBR net sales in almost 10 years, or at least the weakest quarter for net growth. "
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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